Berlin Olaf Scholz took them all by surprise. “From now on, we will invest more than two percent of gross domestic product in our defense every year,” announced the chancellor on Sunday in his government statement in the Bundestag. A special fund of 100 billion euros will be created for this purpose. People were astonished not only in the opposition but also in the government factions.
Because Scholz had only told very few about his plan beforehand. The small group included Finance Minister and FDP leader Christian Lindner, for whose support Scholz is “very grateful”, as he said. The Green Party leadership, including Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck, is said to have only found out about the specific sum through the speech in the Bundestag, as did the SPD parliamentary group.
Scholz wanted to make sure that he himself announced this major build-up of the Bundeswehr – a turning point in German security policy – and that it was not blurted out beforehand. Resistance from within their own ranks could not form before the announcement.
The project still has to be approved by the Bundestag. So far it looks like this should work. Even among the Greens, which emerged from the peace and environmental movement and never supported NATO’s two percent target, there is no significant resistance to the additional billions for the Bundeswehr. “In view of the current situation in Europe, it is important to invest more in security,” said Green Party leader Katharina Dröge.
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These included higher defense spending. In addition, however, a rapid reform of the procurement system of the Bundeswehr is needed. It was “right to draw the funds for a newly established security policy from a special fund,” emphasizes former parliamentary group leader Anton Hofreiter.
The Russian war of aggression in Ukraine created an extraordinary emergency situation. “But we mustn’t forget the other challenges that lie ahead of us: the climate-friendly conversion of our economy also requires massive investments.”
In view of the war, all traffic light partners emphasized that now is not the time for partisan quarrels. The Greens in particular have reason to grumble. Scholz not only surprised her with the 100 billion euros.
The chancellor also pressed ahead with stopping the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline project – a demand that the Greens have been making for much longer than the SPD. He instructed Habeck to prepare it, that’s what Scholz said. One did not have to instruct Habeck on this question, it was then said in his environment.
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But it’s about more than questions of communication and style. Above all, the Greens have to vacate fundamental positions: on the upgrading of the Bundeswehr – and soon possibly in energy policy.
Demands are being made to let nuclear and coal-fired power plants run longer. In the case of nuclear energy, this is considered unlikely. “An extension of the lifetime of nuclear power plants is impractical and involves many safety risks. This was the result of an examination by the Ministry of Economic Affairs,” emphasizes Dröge. But it could add pressure to push back the coal phase-out.
Group colleague Hofreiter explains that postponing the phase-out of coal and extending the life of nuclear power plants is unsuitable for compensating for possible supply bottlenecks. “The only way to real energy sovereignty in Europe is the rapid expansion of renewable energies,” says Hofreiter.
In response to the huge increase in defense spending, the Greens now apparently want to negotiate more money for investments in the energy transition
(Photo: imago images/BildFunkMV)
In response to the huge increase in defense spending, the Greens now appear to want to negotiate more money for investments in the energy transition, which is to be financed by higher debt. The Handelsblatt learned from government circles that an increase in the climate and transformation fund (KTF) is under discussion. Negotiations in this direction are already underway, they say.
The magnitude is still unclear. Numbers are circulating that could go in a similar direction to the 100 billion euro special fund for defense. At the end of 2021, the federal government had allocated around 60 billion euros to the KTF.
The initiative is well received in the group. “Finance Minister Christian Lindner called the renewable energies ‘liberation energies’. Decisive investments in freedom and security should be worth a significant increase in the KTF,” said Dieter Janecek, economic policy spokesman for the Greens.
The Greens also make it clear that they do not want to be the only ones in the traffic light coalition who are abandoning long-held beliefs. That is why they are now openly questioning the debt brake.
“In view of the current emergency, nobody can seriously predict whether the debt brake can be adhered to next year,” says Dröge. The Green finance politician Lisa Paus is even clearer: “Chancellor Scholz rightly spoke of a ‘turning point’.
The Greens don’t want to be the only ones in the traffic light coalition who are abandoning long-held beliefs. That is why they are now openly questioning the debt brake.
(Photo: imago images/photothek)
Against this background, everything needs to be put to the test – including a few old dogmas of financial policy, such as the debt brake.” It is not yet clear whether the planned special fund would need to be secured by an amendment to the Basic Law.
The Greens have been calling for a reform of the debt brake for some time. In addition, they want to avoid that the costs of upgrading their households are now at the expense of their concerns, such as massive investments in climate protection.
Big hurdle: a two-thirds majority in the Bundestag
The Greens also have supporters in the SPD. The left wing has also been struggling with the debt brake for a long time. The co-chairman of the forum for the democratic left in the SPD (DL21), Sebastian Roloff, advocates turning away in order to finance the planned investments. “The debt brake has to go,” said Roloff. It shows in all passages that it is “not up-to-date”.
“Even before Putin’s war, we were faced with many challenges for which investments were urgently needed,” stressed the member of the Bundestag. “If defense policy becomes even more expensive in the future, this will not go beyond savings in social projects, in the health system or in measures for ecological and digital transformation, nor through the establishment of any special funds in the budget.”
The head of the SPD employee wing, Klaus Barthel, also considers the debt brake to be obsolete in view of the “enormous” investment requirements in various areas. However, this does not necessarily apply to the Bundeswehr and national defense. “So far, a lot has failed there because of a lack of strategy, planning, coordination and procurement, not because of a lack of funds,” said Barthel. Conversely, however, this does not mean that the Bundeswehr may need more money. “But that would first have to be defined and quantified. Money alone will not impress Putin.”
However, there is one hurdle to abolishing or softening the debt brake: a two-thirds majority is required in the Bundestag because the Basic Law has to be amended. However, the Union will hardly support the whole thing. Especially since Scholz, with the one-time special fund of 100 billion euros, has already shown a way that the CDU and CSU can agree to much more easily.
More: Comment: The 100 billion euros for the Bundeswehr make the debt brake ad absurdum