Widely followed crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen has been coming to the fore with his Bitcoin (BTC) decline predictions for a while. In his most recent statement, the analyst said that Bitcoin (BTC) could see a significant price drop before the halving event, which is expected to take place in April 2024.
Cowen’s claim is based on the price declines Bitcoin has seen in previous halving periods. In the periods before this halvin, Bitcoin prices were seen to decrease by up to 50%. Therefore, when Cowen examines this historical data, he believes that a similar cycle may occur in the future:
Although the analyst did not specifically disclose such a level, a 50% decline from Bitcoin’s recent peak would send it close to $15,000.
“What we have seen frequently lately is that everyone is talking about the Bitcoin halving event. I’ve seen this over the last few cycles. Everybody’s talking about it, and what normally happens is that Bitcoin first halves (in price) during the halving, and then people say: ‘Oh, that’s what halving means.’
We were down 50% last cycle, even before the pandemic crash happened. And this decline started in the summer months. Look at the cycle before this one. We had a decline starting in the summer and it fell 50% before the real bull market started. I still look at it and some people say, ‘But, it’s not falling today.’ How do we know it didn’t fall? “How do we know that this isn’t just a lower high and that it’s still part of the 50% decline?”
Halving is an event that occurs every four years due to Bitcoin’s algorithm, and in this process, the rewards miners receive for each block are halved. It has long been known that this event has a great impact on market dynamics.
Besides these, another reason behind Benjamin Cowen’s bearish predictions on the Bitcoin price is liquidity problems in the crypto market.
“My concern about Bitcoin is that liquidity is leaving the altcoin market. The purchasing power of altcoins is decreasing and I think this affects Bitcoin at some point as well. Look at the total market cap. If so much new money is coming into the space, why is the total market cap the same as in February and August 2022?
There’s not really a lot of new money coming into this space, basically just money being poured into Bitcoin from the altcoin market, and one of the main drivers of that is Ethereum. Take a look at what’s happening with the ETH/Bitcoin pair. It’s crashing right now. “As I’ve said before, this just looks like a distribution phase.”
You can follow the current price movement here.