The greater Berlin-Brandenburg area is heavily dependent on the refinery, which is majority owned by the Russian Rosneft group.
(Photo: REUTERS)
The EU is on course for an embargo on Russian oil. EU countries have dug deep into the toolbox and unearthed tools that reflect uncertainty rather than determination. Whether the EU states now opt for a price cap, for an embargo on installments, i.e. with transitional periods, or for punitive tariffs on Russian oil is ultimately irrelevant: the risks are immense.
The same applies to oil as it does to natural gas: it is difficult to threaten a boycott when it is obvious that there are not enough alternatives. Germany is particularly affected by oil and gas.
Federal Economics Minister Robert Habeck (Greens) recently announced that Germany will no longer obtain 35 percent of its crude oil from Russia as it did in 2021. Rather, it is only twelve percent. But the twelve percent are difficult to replace. They go primarily to a single refinery in Brandenburg, cut off from West Germany’s oil infrastructure.
Supply bottlenecks and sharply rising prices in eastern Germany are almost inevitable if the Russian oil, which comes to Brandenburg via the “Druschba” pipeline, fails to materialize. Alternatives are not available quickly enough, not to the extent required and not in the right oil quality. But that is the price we must pay to free ourselves from dependence on Russia.
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The danger that Kremlin boss Vladimir Putin uses the embargo as an opportunity weighs much more heavily. Whether it’s a price cap, a transitional period or punitive tariffs – the Russian president, who has long since abandoned rational action, could feel provoked to abruptly stop oil exports to Europe on his own initiative.
Deceptive Appearance
Rising prices on the world oil markets would be a sure consequence. If things go badly, Putin could even increase his earnings if he finds other buyers quickly enough.
The Europeans’ hope that other states would refrain from buying cheap Russian oil out of solidarity is naïve. The oil embargo would be an experiment with an uncertain outcome. The Europeans suggest holding the reins of action in their hands. But appearances are deceptive.
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