Allianz Trade, the world leader in trade receivables insurance, published its 2023 Summer Economic Outlook Report and evaluated the situation in the global economy. According to the report, the global economy still has not recovered from the effects of the energy crisis and the full effect of the tightening monetary policies has not been felt yet. Therefore, it is predicted that the recovery in the global economy will start only in the middle of 2024.
Moderate global growth is expected in 2023 and 2024, as the cumulative impact of tightening monetary policies on economic activity and employment continues. It is stated that the growth forecasts for some strong economies have been raised a little more. It is predicted that the USA and Euro Zone will experience a soft landing in 2023 and show a slight recovery in 2024. It is stated that global growth will most likely decline to 2.5 percent in 2023 and will remain at 2.3 percent in 2024. However, according to the report, there will be significant differences in growth between developed and developing countries, and it is stated that developed economies have a higher chance of avoiding negative growth in 2023 and 2024.
The report also predicts that energy efficient companies will be among the winners in the coming period. However, it is pointed out that some companies that do not have energy efficiency are likely to leave the market.
In the report, which also refers to Turkey, it is stated that the local elections that will take place in March 2024 in the country have a critical importance.
It is emphasized that stock markets are challenging uncertain economic conditions. It is stated that the markets have exhibited a positive performance since the beginning of the year, exceeding analyst forecasts, thanks to the above-expected first-quarter earnings, the reduction of downside risks regarding the US recession and the positive political news flow. However, it is warned that this performance faces some risks such as sluggish growth, the possibility of delayed normalization in inflation, and short-term interest rates remaining higher than expected for a longer period of time.
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