After the Russia talks is before the escalation

Russia did the opposite on Friday: President Vladimir Putin again held military maneuvers on the border with Ukraine. The Ministry of Defense in the capital Moscow announced that there had been an unannounced review of combat readiness in the East Military District.

It released a video showing columns of military vehicles and tanks being loaded onto railroad cars. Soldiers were taken to remote training areas. A focus was also on the infrastructure “to ensure the transport of troops within a certain time,” it said.

Russia’s OSCE representative is now speaking of a “moment of truth” in the coming week. By then, Moscow is demanding a written response to its demands for Ukraine to be banned from joining NATO, for the alliance to withdraw from Eastern Europe and for American nuclear weapons to be withdrawn.

And Alexander Lukashevich added: “Russia is a peace-loving country. But we don’t need peace at any price.” The “risk of war in Europe is higher than it has been for 30 years,” warned Poland’s Foreign Minister Zbigniew Rau, who currently heads the OSCE.

Russia threatens to station troops in Latin America

In order to reinforce its threat, Moscow is now igniting in the United States’ front yard: if talks on binding security guarantees for Russia fail, Russian troops have been threatened to be stationed in Cuba and Venezuela. “If Russia were to move in this direction, we would act decisively,” said US National Security Advisor Sullivan. The United States and its allies are “prepared for any eventuality.”

In addition, there was a serious cyber attack on the Ukraine on Friday night: numerous websites of Ukrainian authorities were paralyzed or controlled externally. The website of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Kiev read, among other things, in Ukrainian, Russian and Polish: “Be afraid and expect the worst.” In 2016, Russian hackers disabled parts of the Ukrainian power and heating lines.

Meanwhile, the United States again warned Russia not to intervene militarily in Ukraine: “We have made Russia very clear about the costs and consequences of further military action or a destabilization of Ukraine,” emphasized Sullivan.

He again threatened Moscow with economic and financial sanctions, export bans and an armament of Ukraine “if the Russian military crosses the Ukrainian border”. The Russian national currency has meanwhile fallen to its lowest level since last summer, despite the high oil price, which otherwise always drives the ruble. Russian banks, which are threatened with exclusion from the Swift international payment system, are becoming increasingly nervous.

Russia sees its security threatened by NATO and is therefore demanding an end to the eastward enlargement and, in particular, a refusal to accept Ukraine and the withdrawal of units that have been stationed in Eastern Europe since 1997. The NATO and EU members reject this unanimously and emphasize that each country decides for itself whether to join alliances.

Baerbock travels to Kiev and Moscow

Federal Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock, who is traveling to Kiev and Moscow next week, called for the talks with Russia to be continued, despite the lack of results so far. “Even if there have been no real movements at the moment, it is important that we finally return to the dialogue table,” said the Green politician on Thursday at the sidelines of an EU meeting in Brest, France. “The important thing is that we are sitting at the table, that talks are being held now. And that – even if it is hard – with a lot of patience and perseverance.”

It is not yet clear whether there could be compromises. In Brest, Baerbock did not want to comment specifically on the question of whether, in her view, Russia’s demand for the withdrawal of US nuclear weapons from countries like Germany should be discussed. “Questions of disarmament must and should be discussed. But now that we’re seated at the table, I’m not openly commenting on any individual considerations,” she said.

The chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee, Michael Roth (SPD), also told the Handelsblatt that “Russia’s return to the negotiating table (…) means an opportunity for a de-escalation of the tense situation”. For too long we talked about each other and not with each other.

In Brest, the foreign ministers of the European Union agreed on a ten-point plan for a unified approach to dealing with Russia. The concept provides for a mixture of deterrence and dialogue in view of the Russian troop deployment on the border with Ukraine.

For example, preparations for new sanctions are to be continued with partners such as the USA. At the same time, the willingness to take confidence-building measures and support for possible new agreements on disarmament and arms control is emphasized.

Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has proposed a tripartite summit with the presidents of the United States and Russia, according to his chief of staff Andrii Yermak. According to the Reuters news agency, Yermak said on Friday in Kiev that the growing tensions in Ukraine should be discussed.

The desire for old greatness

The proposal for a tripartite summit without the Europeans comes at a time when the German government is making increasing efforts to revive the so-called Normandy format. In these rounds, representatives of Germany, France, Ukraine and Russia advise. The Ukrainian ambassador to Germany, Andrii Melnyk, had demanded in a Reuters interview that the United States should join this format.

Whether Putin will ultimately dare military escalation or allow negotiations to mutually improve the security situation remains to be seen. Western politicians want to talk to Moscow about new arms control initiatives, concrete disarmament steps and more transparency in maneuvers. The aim is to take the other person’s concerns about unexpected military action.

But Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov made it clear that Moscow wanted written security guarantees about NATO’s withdrawal and not endless talks about disarmament steps. In the end, perhaps the only hope lies in a summit meeting between Vladimir Putin and Joe Biden soon.

When Barack Obama acknowledged that Russia was “just a regional power,” he deeply offended the Kremlin, says an influential Russian lawmaker who declined to be named amid a surge of nationalist sentiment in Moscow. For this reason, the only thing that counts for Russia is being on an equal footing with Washington and returning to great power status.

With agency material

More: Negotiating with the Russian aggressor: what does Putin want?