A war in Ukraine could trigger the next refugee crisis in Europe

Vienna Should Russia actually get serious about invading Ukraine, a wave of refugees would be almost inevitable. The experiences of the recent past are bitter: two million Ukrainians were displaced in the course of the annexation of Crimea, the Russian intervention in eastern Ukraine and the ensuing fighting.

854,000 now live elsewhere within Ukraine, with the remainder fleeing abroad – along with the many millions who fled their homes for economic reasons.

The number of refugees now depends on Moscow’s war goals. The extent of the wave of escapes remains correspondingly speculative.

For example, US government officials spoke to the two chambers of parliament of one million to five million displaced persons, the influential consulting institute Stratfor estimates up to eight million.