Jordan Eliseo, Perth Mint’s director of listed products and investment research, thinks the gold price tends to rise from late March to late December, supported by rising inflation rates and a renewed decline in real interest rates. Market commentary by Jordan Eliseo and technical analysis by market analyst Rajan Dhall cryptocoin.com compiled for our readers.
Correction or decline in gold price?
Jordan Eliseo continues his positive views for gold prices in 2022, stating that he understands that for a commodity to rise, it must withstand a fall:
It is worth noting that gold is currently operating for a period of about 15 months, with prices experiencing a worst-case correction of about 20%. Corrective cycles like this are an integral part of every market and indeed often a healthy development. Because it allows the market to free itself from excessive foam and speculation.
So far this year, the gold price has been hampered by a rise in US interest rates, but the real inflation rate remains an interesting point of contention. Inflation is rising and the US 10-year rate may have risen, but it’s still far behind the annual CPI. Fed members’ comments should be watched closely for clues, according to analyst Rajan Dhall.
Noting that gold has been in a massive consolidation phase between $1,833 and $1,753 since November 22, Rajan Dhall reminded that on Monday, although the price dropped below $1,800, the next major support is in the green zone at $1,786. The Fibonacci retracement levels are still holding strong and the latest upside rejection hit the 0.382% Fib area.
“The volume still fits the negative bias,” he says, noting that the volume on the down candles is still significantly higher than on the upward histogram bars, and the buy volume is very low even at the $1,800 test. Looking from below, if the aforementioned green zone is broken, the next major support is the lower purple consolidation and $1,753 to watch.
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