Commodities analysts were a little too optimistic about precious metals last year. But the golden bears proved them right, grabbing the London Bullion Metal’s Association’s (LBMA) award for best prediction for 2021. The forecasts of analysts, who continue to be bearish for 2022, cryptocoin.com We have prepared for our readers.
“By the end of the year, gold will be $ 1,600!”
In a press release released Monday, the LBMA said Caroline Bain, chief commodity economist at Capital Economics, has the best gold forecast for the past year. The economist had expected prices to average around $1,805 for the year. His estimate last year was only $6 above the actual average price of $1,798.60. Caroline Bain’s gold outlook was not the lowest among gold analysts. However, he correctly predicted that gold prices were capped at $1,900.
According to LBMA’s 2021 survey, the average price estimate was $1,973.80, more than $175 above the actual average. Looking ahead, Capital Economics continues to bear on gold in 2022. The UK-based research firm makes the following predictions for 2022:
We expect gold prices to drop to $1,600 by the end of the year and a stronger dollar to create a headwind for gold throughout the year as the Federal Reserve tries to raise interest rates and push real rates higher. We think the Fed will aggressively tighten monetary policy to contain stubbornly high inflation. Our forecast is that the Fed will raise interest rates three times this year before starting quantitative tightening in 2022.
Most accurate silver predictions
Edward Meir, commodity strategist at ED&F Man Capital Markets, came in second with an estimate of $1,815. Third place is Frank Shallenberger at LBBW with an estimated $1,821. Analysts were also overly optimistic about silver. “Analysts had predicted that the price of silver would average $28.5 in 2021, which is quite a bullish outlook, given that the actual price in 2021 has dropped by more than $3,” the LBMA explained.
Peter Fertig, founder of QCR Quantitative Commodity Research Limited, was the top silver analyst of 2021 at $24.90, just 24 cents from the real price of $25.14. HSBC Securities’ precious metals analyst Jim Steel was in second place with an estimate of $25.5, while Ventakraman S from Eventell Global Advisory Pvt Ltd took the third place with $25.65.
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