The tropical cyclone caused major damage in September 2022.
(Photo: IMAGO/ZUMA Wire)
Frankfurt Tropical cyclones on the US coast regularly cause billions in damage. After several years of storm-promoting conditions, experts expect cyclone activity for this year’s hurricane season to be in line with the long-term average.
The reason is two opposing climate phenomena, which this time, however, also make the forecast particularly difficult. “In the current hurricane season, North Atlantic hurricane-promoting influences and Pacific hurricane-mitigating influences are playing off against each other,” said James Cosgrove, risk modeler at Moody’s RMS, on Wednesday.
The Atlantic hurricane season officially started on June 1st and lasts until the end of November. According to Cosgrove, four named storms – that is, storms that are given an official name by the US National Hurricane Center – have already occurred. Hurricane season typically peaks between mid-August and late October.
Moody’s is expecting an “almost normal hurricane season” this time. However, the rating agency points out that 2022 was also considered a largely normal year – until hurricane “Ian” caused drastic damage in September.
Experts put the total economic damage caused by this hurricane at $100 billion. $60 billion of that was insured. In this country, the reinsurers Munich Re and Hannover Re had to pay the bills.
The Atlantic has warmed disproportionately since May
Such single major events make predictions for the whole season a challenge. This year they are particularly difficult because of the two opposing drivers: On the one hand there is the El Niño climate phenomenon in the Pacific, which also affects extreme weather in distant regions.
According to Munich Re experts, El Niño years are associated with strong high-level winds over the North Atlantic. The so-called vertical wind shear dampens hurricanes because they literally blow storm systems apart.
On the other hand, there are the increased water temperatures in the tropical North Atlantic. According to the reinsurer, they ensure lower air pressure and weaker trade winds, which lead to a more favorable environment for hurricanes. Since the Atlantic has warmed disproportionately since May, this climate effect could even gain the upper hand.
As of now, a stronger hurricane season is expected than in spring, said a Munich Re spokeswoman. However, it is still more or less to be expected that the number of storms will be at the long-term average. According to Cosgrove of Moody’s RMS, that would mean 14 named storms, seven of which would be hurricanes and three of which would be severe hurricanes in the highest category three to five. Updated forecasts could provide more clarity in early August.
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