“Where Are the Aliens?” Answer: The Dark Forest Theory

Some signals from space Although it may excite humanity from time to time, we have not yet reached any tangible evidence. It is possible that there may not be creatures intelligent enough to decode the signals we have sent into space for decades, or that the signals have not yet traveled far enough to reach them. most accepted possibilities displayed as. Even if the signals arrived, it is known that it will take decades for them to decipher these messages and reply to us.

Dark Forest TheoryAccording to ‘, it is in our best interest not to receive a response to our signals or to have our messages not reach them. Okay but why?

In order to better understand the subject; It is worth mentioning the following paragraph in “The Dark Forest”, the second book of the science fiction “World’s Past” trilogy, written by Liu Cixin:

“The universe is a dark forest. Every civilization is an armed hunter, lurking like a ghost among the trees, gently pushing aside the branches in front of it and trying to move forward without making a sound. Even breathing is done carefully. The hunter has to be careful, as there are invisible hunters like him all over the forest. If he finds another creature—another hunter, an angel or a demon, a defenseless baby or an old man struggling to walk, a fairy or a demigod—there is only one thing he can do: Open fire and eliminate them. Hell in this forest is other people. It is an eternal threat that all life forms that manifest their existence will be quickly wiped out from history. This is the picture of cosmic civilization. This is the explanation for the Fermi Paradox.”

What do we do when we encounter a stranger while wandering in a mysterious place full of dangers?

Should we trust this stranger whose language and intent we do not even know, or before he takes action to protect our lives? Should we eliminate it? Even if the two civilizations could communicate, there would be great distances to be overcome, both physically and culturally and linguistically. The argument in the novel is based on this; All living organisms always want to survive.

That’s why organisms live in the dark forest or prefers to hide or for his own safety in an encounter He wants to destroy the other side. This theory suggests that we may not be able to communicate with alien civilizations, perhaps because they prefer to hide in the dark forest (the universe).

The Dark Forest Theory mentioned in the novel actually tries to answer the famous Fermi Paradox, as mentioned at the end of the quote you read above.

Fermi Paradox, extraterrestrial civilizations the possibility of existence It expresses the discrepancy between the absence of any evidence or contact to corroborate this even though it is high. Physicist Enrico Fermi, who propounded the paradox, claimed that alien life although there is likely to be states that we are unable to communicate with them due to current circumstances and obstacles.

According to the Drake Equation, which has an important place in the search for extraterrestrial life; Statistically, there should be at least 10,000 alien civilizations, with 20 of them somewhere near us.

In 1961, radio astronomer Franke Drake tried to calculate/estimate the number of civilizations that should be in our Milky Way Galaxy, taking into account many factors that may play a role in the development of civilizations, and he reached these numbers.

This equation includes the following factors:

• N the number of civilizations we can hope to communicate with
• R* Annual rate of star formation in our galaxy
• fp How many of these stars have planets?
• Average number of total habitable planets per star with neither planet
• fl The number of planets between these planets in which there is a suitable environment for life in any way.
• fi How many of these habitable planets have started intelligent life?
• fc Segment of such civilizations that may leave detectable signals of their presence in space
• L The duration of the detectable signal broadcast in space by such a civilization

Is the Dark Forest Theory a logical thought or a paranoia?

Although the theory may seem like a paranoia “do not destroy each other because of distrust” We have seen examples of them all over the world for centuries. In post-apocalyptic movies This topic is also frequently covered. With the collapse of civilization, people who started to act alone try to kill each other when they meet a different person. As the survival instinct predominates, the other party’s life becomes insignificant.

We have been sending messages to the universe for nearly a century. But what if they are detected by a dangerous alien civilization?

The Solar System is relatively young compared to the rest of the universe. That’s why aliens on other habitable planets will have a better time advantage. they may have more advanced technology than us. With the effect of this situation, it seems more likely that they will reach us before we can reach alien civilizations.

Also, even though our technology is behind compared to them, we think that we will be a danger to them one day because we are developing so fast. they may want to crush the head of the snake when it is small.

Stephen Hawking and dozens of scientists emphasized that this is a big risk.

Let’s think of our world as a house in a dark forest. A few people in the house are trying to mark our place by holding a lantern out the window, regardless of whether the majority will allow it or not. But what if we attract the attention of malicious people?

This is why there are reactions against a group of people who make decisions on behalf of billions of people on the planet. Between them Elon Musk Scientists, including people like me, started a petition to prevent the sharing of signals sent to space that could cause our location to be detected.

In summary, it can be said that the Dark Forest Theory presents a logical argument.

Even if alien civilizations intercept the signals we send them, because they have not yet understood what we are. They may prefer to hide.. Maybe we should hide our existence by not revealing our existence to the universe with signals, It might be safer to stay in the dark in the forest!

Sources: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6