When war divides the family

Good morning dear readers,

it is the unofficial motto of dawdlers and daydreamers of all ages: “If I hurry up really hard now, I can still almost make it on time.” Experience has shown that this sentence is almost never correct, which you can see from slow-moving schoolchildren. Politicians probably not.

It is all the more worrying that the official energy policy of the federal government seems to follow this motto. It took more than 20 years for wind turbines to turn on land in Germany with a total output of 56 gigawatts. More than the same amount would have to be installed within just seven years for the federal government to achieve its wind power target of 115 gigawatts for 2030. This is hardly achievable, as suggested by an evaluation prepared for the Handelsblatt by the Institute for Energy Economics at the University of Cologne (EWI).

Almost nine gigawatts would have to be installed annually for the project from now on. Even in the previous record year of 2017, there was never such a high rate of expansion. At that time, 5.3 gigawatts were newly connected to the grid. Without sufficient green electricity, Germany will not only miss its climate targets – there is also a risk of a gap in the power supply.

The strategy of the federal government is that we simply have to hurry even more in the coming years. With all sorts of planning simplifications, it should be possible to put the almost six new large wind turbines into operation, which will be necessary from now on – day by day until the end of the decade.

After all, you have to acknowledge that: The energy policy of the federal government is now based on at least a halfway realistic forecast for electricity consumption. It was different under Angela Merkel.

What remains to be done? Of course, the expansion of renewables should progress as quickly as possible. But that alone will not be enough. At the same time, alternative paths must also be taken to curb climate change. Ottmar Edenhofer, Director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, demands in an interview with the Handelsblatt: “We will have to remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere on a large scale in order to use or store it.”

Another example of such an alternative path that has been discussed for decades but has not been taken for far too long: Generate solar power for Europe where the sun almost always shines. A power cable from Egypt to Greece should make this possible by the end of the decade. By today’s standards, it would be the longest undersea cable in the world at 950 kilometers. The currently longest power line running through the sea is the North Sea Link between Norway and Great Britain with 720 kilometers.

Conclusion: We do not need one of these and similar initiatives, but dozens.

At least one is currently doing what he can to make it easy for Germany to say goodbye to the fossil age. Russian President Vladimir Putin issued a decree yesterday banning the sale of oil to countries, who have decided on a price cap on the raw material. The decree comes into force on February 1. The price cap for Russian oil was decided by the EU at the beginning of December and is currently 60 US dollars (57 euros) per barrel (159 litres). The G7 countries, Australia and Norway have joined the measure.

According to the Financial Times, however, Putin’s decree leaves a back door open: With “special permission” oil can continue to be sold to buyers who are subject to the price cap. This gives the Kremlin the opportunity to reward good political behavior in the Ukraine question with cheap oil as it sees fit.

“Don’t ask what your country can do for you. Ask what you can do for your country,” said US President John F. Kennedy, and the personal details that became known yesterday should belong to the second category: The deputy chairman of the FDP parliamentary group and trained diplomat Alexander Graf Lambsdorff According to media reports, he is to become the new ambassador of the Federal Republic in Moscow in the summer. First “Pioneer” had reported on the change. There is plenty of political responsibility for Lambsdorff in Moscow, he will not have to pay an entertainment tax at the post.

Let’s stay with the Lambsdorff family for a moment: Alexander’s uncle, then Economics Minister Otto Graf Lambsdorff (FDP), presented a “concept for a policy to overcome weak growth and combat unemployment” in 1982, in which he introduced a paradigm shift away from the Keynesian Demand policy towards a market-liberal supply policy. The paper was a predetermined breaking point for the coalition of SPD and FDP, Helmut Kohl (CDU) became the new Federal Chancellor a few weeks later.

Since then, there has always been a bit of political twilight when a liberal government politician demands a change of course in a policy paper. The FDP chairman and Federal Finance Minister Christian Lindner was probably aware of these historical reminiscences when he commissioned an internal concept called “Growth Package 2023/2024” in his ministry, which says: “After a decade of distribution policy and the strengthening of demand we have to dare a regulatory turnaround to supply-side politics.”

According to the “Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung”, which has the paper, Lindner’s people are demanding, among other things:

• a “fiscal firewall” to avoid further burdens
• more generous depreciation opportunities for investments
• the stronger promotion of work incentives for transfer payments such as the planned basic child security
• continued operation of the German nuclear power plants beyond April 2023

Plenty of conflict material, but before those in a hurry call out the near end of the traffic light, a little reminder: Unlike then, the FDP cannot simply change coalition partners, black and yellow do not have a majority in the Bundestag. Lindner’s paper is more likely to be intended as a warning shot than as a declaration of war. Since this is officially an internal ministry paper, Lindner can distance itself from the positions of its experts at any time.

I wish you a day when all you have to do is build firewalls against the Christmas pounds.

Best regards

you

Christian Rickens

Editor-in-Chief Handelsblatt