What the EU rule of law procedure means for the country

Victor Orban

Reports detail Prime Minister Viktor Orban providing himself, his family and friends with lucrative grants.

(Photo: IMAGO/Belga)

Brussels In Hungary and Poland, the governments are securing power and money with anti-democratic reforms. They have strayed so far away from the rule of law norms customary in the European Union that a further split in the EU seems possible.

In tough negotiations, the EU Commission has therefore had the member states give it the right to take action against individual states in the form of constitutional proceedings and to cut funds if countries do not implement the requirements from Brussels. Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has now announced that she will initiate the first procedure of this kind against Hungary.

What is Hungary accused of?

It’s mostly about corruption. According to an estimate by the European Court of Auditors, four percent of EU funds for Hungary seep away down dark channels. In the other EU countries it is rarely more than one percent. Reports detail Prime Minister Viktor Orban providing himself, his family and friends with lucrative grants.

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The EU Commission is therefore demanding measures to curb corruption, but Hungary is not prepared to take them. “So far we have not found a common basis,” said von der Leyen.

In addition to corruption, there are other problems, such as voting rights, the independence of the judiciary and freedom of the media.

What threatens Hungary now?

At the end of the rule of law procedure, the EU Commission can propose to the member states to freeze part of the EU funds for Hungary. Hungary receives almost five billion euros from the EU budget every year and thus about 3.5 percent of the gross domestic product. Theoretically it would be possible to block this money completely.

It is more likely that only part of the money will be frozen at first. For example, the Commission could argue that funds from certain funds are more likely to be affected by corruption than others.

In addition, Hungary can hardly hope for money from the Corona reconstruction fund. There are actually 7.2 billion euros planned for the country.

Orban and von der Leyen 2020

The Hungarians have not been impressed by the EU Commission’s threats.

(Photo: dpa)

How fast is that?

The process should take a maximum of nine months. This time is obtained by adding up the various periods provided for in the law. The Commission must first notify the national government of the procedure, which can then reply. Several legal tests follow. At the end there is a vote among the EU member states, which requires a clear majority.

What does the procedure have to do with the election in Hungary?

Officially there is no connection. The EU Commission repeatedly emphasizes that this is an administrative process that takes time to prepare. However, the suspicion is that the commission did not want to expose itself to suspicion that it was interfering in the election campaign.

>> Read here: Why Viktor Orban is weakened despite his election victory

How do Hungarians see the procedure?

The clearest expression of opinion among Hungarians is the result of Sunday’s parliamentary elections. Orban’s Fidesz party won an absolute majority. Hungarians either ignore the allegations of corruption or do not take them seriously.

What does the procedure mean for the EU and its sanctions?

It is unclear how Orban will react. On the one hand, the rule of law mechanism is seen as the last chance to preserve the EU’s common foundation of values. On the other hand, EU countries also fear for cohesion.

This would be particularly important with regard to sanctions, which require unanimity among member states. Hungary is anyway the country that is closest to Russia even now. Orban himself described Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky as his opponent. So far, however, he has supported the sanctions against Russia.

What about Poland?

Poland is also threatened with proceedings, but so far there are no indications that the Commission will open them anytime soon. On the contrary, there are rumors that Poland will soon receive money from the Corona reconstruction fund. However, she rejects the assumption that von der Leyen would announce this next weekend. At an appointment in Warsaw, the focus should be on support for refugees.

The commission expects three reforms from Poland, which should repair damage to the Polish justice system. Only when the corresponding law has been passed by parliament will it be checked and then a decision made on the payment, said von der Leyen.

More on this: Now the EU has to set limits for the hardliner Orban

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