What is the probability of volcano eruption in Turkey?

Judging by what the experts say, the information that “volcanoes in our country are not active” taught to us in primary school is not very true. An insidious enemy slumbers just below us.

There are 500 active volcanoes around the world, and about 50 of them erupt each year, spewing lava. Even this year alone, volcanoes in Spain, Iceland, Indonesia and Italy were frequently on the agenda. Some are 800, some Waking up from 6,000 years of sleep It started spewing lava again.

including Turkey There are hundreds of volcanoes in the region starting from Spain in the Alpine-Himalayan belt and going through Italy and Greece to Turkey, Iran, Indonesia and the Philippines. There are large volcanoes that have erupted throughout history.

So, how big is the danger of volcanoes for Turkey, which has 15 volcanoes?

According to the data, the last volcanic eruption in Turkey, in 1855 It took place on Tendürek Mountain. But according to experts, these volcanoes are not completely silent and when the time comes It will be operational again!

The famous photo of this girl named Omayra Sánchez is an example for us. Taken after the eruption of the Nevado del Ruiz volcano in Colombia.

volcano eruption girl

Nearly 23,000 people died in the 1985 explosion. where it’s stuck for 60 hours Unfortunately, Omayra, who had to wait, could not be saved. People struggling with problems such as bad economy, terrorism “all the troubles are over but the volcano is left” he was saying. So the reason why so many people died was because of unpreparedness.

The volcano, which caused a silent and profound disaster, had erupted before that in 1845. Because he slept for 140 years perception of not being dangerous had occurred. However, this period of time, which was long for humans, was very, very short for geology.

Scientists warned, but no one listened. The authorities and the public need to be conscious so that a similar situation does not occur in our country. because The probability of a volcano erupting in Turkey this century is much higher than the probability of not erupting!

There are 15 different volcanic formations in Turkey. Explosion dates are as follows:

turkey volcano eruption dates

For a volcano to be considered active, it only needs to have erupted in the last 10,000 years. Ten of our volcanoes are technically active volcanoes.

Active Volcanoes:
Acıgöl-Nevşehir
Pain (Ararat)
Mount Erciyes
Göllü Mountain
Hasan Mountain
Karaca Mountain
Karapinar Volcanic Area
ear
Nemrut Mountain
Tendürek Mountain

Possible Volcanoes:
Girekol Hill
Pond
Kars Plateau
Mount Suphan

Inactive Volcanoes:
Cappadocia

What is the probability of another volcanic eruption in Turkey?

hasan mountain

According to a research report prepared by the University of Bristol and TUBITAK, Turkey is home to volcanic activity in the world. 14th most risky country out of 95 countries.

Here is our risk map:

volcano risk map

Having volcanoes that erupt frequently, such as Indonesia and Iceland, is not the only component of volcano risk. At the same time, how many people live around those volcanoes, the citizens and authorities of that country. how well prepared he is for a volcanic disasterDetails such as how closely the volcanoes are followed in the country and how aware of the volcanic dangers and risks in general are also important.

Volcano risk is almost never considered in Turkey and it is almost because none of us has the slightest idea about volcanism There is an enormous population accumulation around volcanic formations. 15 million people live in a radius of 100 kilometers around active volcanoes in our country.

The probability of a volcanic eruption in Turkey by 2100 is over 70%.

kula volcano

If we had asked you to estimate this probability, we would have heard more about 7%, 0.7%, but According to science, this is the real possibility! Despite this, there is almost no awareness about the danger of volcanoes. However, even if we do not see it, our children and grandchildren will most likely witness a volcanic eruption in Turkey.

The Nevado del Ruiz in Colombia, which killed that child and 23,000 people with him, exploded in 1845 before exploding in 1985. Mount Ararat erupted in 1840 and Mount Tendürek in 1855.

mountain of pain volcano

In the last eruption of Mount Ararat at least 1900 people died It is thought, that when you think with the population of that time, you can understand how much it was. If this number is correct, it is 21st deadliest volcanic eruption means it is.

In a study conducted by 35 scientists from 12 countries in Turkey, it was seen that Nemrut is still active.

nemrut volcano

Professor at the University of Bonn. Dr. In the research conducted under the coordination of Thomas Litt, it was determined that the age of Lake Van was approximately 400,000 years and that the lake was caused by the eruption of the Nemrut volcano.

prof. Dr. Thomas Litt, last supposed to have operated in the 1440s He stated that the volcano will erupt and become active. With this research on the lake, according to geophysicists, geologists and risk analysts, the biggest risk is that volcanism is formed not by flowing but by eruption.

It is thought that there is a connection between the explosion at Hasan Mountain near Çatalhöyük and a Neolithic landscape painting.

forkhöyük drawing volcano

According to the research results of Axel Schmitt and his team from the University of California, the volcanic eruption in Çatalhöyük “Picture of a volcano spewing lava”The times coincide.

New evidence shows the world of 8600-year-old painting oldest landscape painting can prove it. A three-metre-wide painting from 6600 BC, discovered on the wall of an adobe house during excavations in 1960, showing the lava eruption of a two-peaked volcano on a settlement, is kept in the Museum of Anatolian Civilizations in Ankara.

Volcanic activities can also be seen in the Aegean Sea. The Greek island of Santorini was formed as a result of a volcanic eruption, and even in 2012, a young volcano formed under the sea in this region.

santorini volcano

150 meters ahead of Marmaris at a depth of 25 meters A volcanic rim was discovered. High temperatures in the sea water and seismic activities were observed in the region (2340 earthquake).

Just as science told us that the current pandemic would come years ago, it also warns us about this situation. Maybe in a week, maybe in a century… Somewhere out there, an insidious enemy is waiting for us.

volcano turkey risk
Resources:
Professor at the University of Bonn. Dr. 35 scientists under the coordination of Thomas Litt
Dr. Çağrı Mert Bakırcı (Tree of Evolution)
Professor at the University of California. Dr. Axel K. Schmitt and his team
Geophysicist Dr. Oguz Gundogdu
Geologist Prof. Dr. Okan Tüysüz
Dokuz Eylul University Geological Engineering Department Lecturer Prof. Dr. Hasan Sözbilir
Yıldız Technical University Natural Sciences Research Center President Prof. Dr. Sukru Ersoy
Geophysics Engineer Prof. Dr. Ovgun Ahmet Ercan
TurkVolc


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