Berlin According to the Federal Statistical Office, around 60.4 million voters will decide on the composition of the next Bundestag on Sunday – and thus indirectly about the Chancellor. But which group of voters has which influence? And what does that mean for the design options in certain policy areas? A few insights into the voter groups.
Around 38 percent of those eligible to vote are 60 years or older, and around one in five is at least 70 years old. It is difficult to make politics against this gerontocracy – the rule of the elders. Reductions in benefits in terms of pension, health or care are taboo for any party that does not want to alienate the elderly.
And the electoral group of the elderly has become stronger and stronger, following the demographic change. In 1972, in what was then the Federal Republic of Germany, only 27 percent of those eligible to vote were 60 years or older. In the last federal election in 2017, the share was already around 36 percent.
In addition, with the exception of the youngest and oldest age group, voter turnout increases with age. The seniors are not only numerically a decisive force, they are also particularly keen to exercise their right to vote.
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The newcomers – what makes the first-time voters tick?
2.8 million young people have come of age since the last federal election and are now allowed to cast their votes for the first time. The first-time voters thus have a share of 4.6 percent of all eligible voters. You grew up with CDU Chancellor Angela Merkel, but the majority of them sympathize with the Greens.
A good 60 million eligible voters decide on the composition of the next Bundestag.
(Photo: dpa)
In June, for example, the opinion research institute Forsa determined on behalf of the broadcaster RTL that 42 percent of 18 to 20-year-olds would vote for Chancellor candidate Annalena Baerbock’s party. Also in an Insa survey for “Bild am Sonntag” from the end of August, the Greens were ahead with 30 percent – in this case, however, in the larger age group of 18 to 29 year olds.
However, a few days ago the survey “teen spirit” put a damper on Baerbock’s hopes of being able to score points with the younger generation. In this context, the agency Fischerappelt and the opinion research institute Appinio regularly question young people between the ages of 16 and 24 about their personal environment and political preferences.
The surprising result: on the Sunday question, the Union was ahead with 26 percent of the vote and six percentage points ahead of the Greens. The FDP would receive 14 percent of the youth, the SPD eleven percent, the Left and AfD each received six percent. Even in a direct comparison of the top candidates, CDU man Armin Laschet is 17 percent ahead of Baerbock (15 percent) and SPD chancellor candidate Olaf Scholz (nine percent).
The women – a slight overhang
Of the 60.4 million eligible voters, 31.2 million or 51.7 percent are women and 29.2 million men. The slight overhang results from the longer life expectancy of women, but only for the 60 plus generation.
In the last legislative period, women – measured in terms of their share of the electorate – were severely underrepresented in parliament. They made up less than a third of the members of the Bundestag. It is questionable whether this will change much. Because of the 6,211 candidates who apply for a mandate, just under a third are women.
State money recipients – every second eligible voter benefits
About every second person eligible to vote in these federal elections receives “good money from the state”, said Michael Eilfort, chairman of the Market Economy Foundation, recently to journalists in Berlin. In a rough estimate, the foundation looked at how many pensioners, pension recipients, public servants and transfer recipients there are among those eligible to vote, for example recipients of unemployment benefits, short-time work benefits or basic security.
Statutory health and long-term care insurance benefits or child benefit have not yet been factored in. Of course, it must also be taken into account that contributions have also been paid for pension or unemployment benefits, for example. Nevertheless, the rough calculation shows how difficult it will be for a future government to implement cuts in benefits – and how important it is to have solid funding for the welfare system.
People with a migration background – reluctance to vote
The proportion of eligible voters with a migration background has been increasing for years and is currently around twelve percent. In the election four years ago it was around two percentage points less. According to the microcensus, there were around 7.4 million German adults living in Germany in 2019 who either immigrated themselves or came from an immigrant family.
According to a study by the Expert Council of German Foundations for Integration and Migration (SVR), the turnout of eligible voters with a migration background in the 2017 federal election was around 20 percentage points lower than that of citizens without a history of immigration.
And outside of elections, they are less politically active than the average population. In the 2018 SVR Integration Barometer, just under 53 percent of those surveyed with a history of immigration stated that they were “rather strongly” or “very strongly” interested in politics. Among the respondents without a migration background, the proportion was significantly higher at just under 70 percent.
The authors of the study write that the low voter turnout and lower political interest could have serious consequences: “With the continuous increase in the proportion of the population with foreign roots, the number of people whose interests may be neglected within the political system is increasing.”
As far as voting behavior is concerned, neither the official election statistics nor the exit polls differentiate according to migration background. The party preference can only be found out through surveys. For a long time, the SPD was one step ahead among voters with a migration background, but studies indicate that party preferences have shifted in recent years.
According to a study by the Konrad Adenauer Foundation, only 13 percent of people of Turkish origin named the SPD as their preferred party in 2019, compared with 50 percent four years earlier. In contrast, the Union won in favor of the electorate from 17 to 53 percent.
In a four-year comparison, the Union lost a little reputation among ethnic repatriates, but was still clearly ahead in 2019 with 47 percent. The AfD, which rose in favor of the repatriates from three to 16 percent, was able to grow strongly.
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