Historical data shows that there is usually a bull market for Bitcoin price in April. What happened last April was as follows…
Bitcoin (BTC) price and historically April performance
According to seasonal analysis and serial correlation, BTC price was typically stronger in April than any other month of the year. There is no information as to why this phenomenon occurs, but if the trend continues, Bitcoin may be on its way to starting a more substantial uptrend.
The chart below shows BTC’s performance in April each year. The data starts with April 2011, when Bitcoin gained more than 343%.
The April rally in 2011 represents a total April return of 537.94%, or an average increase of 44.83% per month over the years. The 17% drop in 2022 was one of those rare bear periods.
In finance, performance is often repeated with an unusual timing. For example, the phenomenon called the January Effect sees a sharp rise in the valuations of small-cap stocks and altcoins.
Strong March strengthens possibilities for a bullish April
Bitcoin historically peaked in November or December. As seen in 2021, it can host big bull runs in April. Past performance is no guarantee of future results, but history can often rhyme.
Bitcoin analysis: April may bring 44% price increase
Interestingly, a 44% move in BTC price helped it break above $40,000 for the first time in April of last year. The cryptocurrency market fell 17% later this month, falling below the waning support. A break below the support trendline resulted in a dramatic decline and increased 46% in the following two months. From the close of April 2022 to the current low set in November, BTC has dropped a full 58%.
Since November, Bitcoin has risen about 80%, and a further 44% on top of it means that the value of BTC has doubled from the bottom in November to the end of this month. But it will only be possible if BTC adds this average to the current price. It can be a productive indicator to take a look at the similarity of April 2023 and 2019:
Bitcoin monthly chart points to ultra bullish momentum
A recent analysis by Ana Nicenko, one of the Finbold analysts, offered an optimistic picture that Bitcoin could reach its peak of $47,000. Specifically, Bitcoin’s monthly chart is extremely bullish, trending upwards as its monthly relative strength index (RSI) over the past 14 periods has recorded a reading of 50.45.
Specifically, the RSI indicator is a technical analysis (TA) tool that measures the speed and volatility of price movements to assess a coin’s overvalued or undervalued conditions. In the above case, Bitcoin sits in a middle ground between overbought and oversold.
Can Bitcoin price climb to $47,000?
On top of that, the same technical analysis previously made a comparison between Bitcoin’s movements in 2021-2023 and 2017-2020. This analysis suggests that the chances of BTC price moving towards $47,000 in the coming months are high.
Another crypto analyst, Michaël van de Poppe, thinks a similar scenario is possible. He states that Bitcoin has witnessed a “classic crawl” and that the “trend continues to be upwards as we are in a ‘relaxation’ gap”:
Most likely, we will see Bitcoin continue to $40,000, but if we test $25,000 first, I will be a buyer.
cryptocoin.com In this article, we have included the macro developments that may have a direct impact on the Bitcoin price in April. BTC is up over 5% in the last 7 days at the time of writing, maintaining its position above $28,000.
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