“We must neither underestimate the Russians nor overestimate the Ukrainians”

Ukrainian soldiers at Bakhmut

Berlin Mr. Mölling, Russia and the Ukraine are fighting a material battle in Bachmut. How long can this go on?
The first factor is that both sides have a material problem in terms of adequate equipment and supplies. As a result, they have not yet been able to develop their maximum firepower. As a result, only a relatively static trench warfare continues.

The second factor is the weather. The ground is currently thawing and will eventually be so dry that heavy equipment and tanks can drive over it. Then you can avoid the paved roads, which otherwise offer the enemy an easy target. Larger, space-consuming operations will then be possible again.

The third is a promising surgical strategy. With all three factors in place, Ukraine can launch a spring offensive with a greater chance of success. We will reach this point in the next few weeks.

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