Exactly six months ago, Russia invaded Ukraine. A good time to think strategically about whether and how we can persuade Russia to stop the aggression even more. The initial situation: Western military support services including delivery of heavy weapons with a longer range – some even from Germany! – have made it possible for Ukraine to slow down the Russian advance as far as possible, but without being able to force major withdrawal operations from Moscow so far.
The international sanctions are obviously beginning to have increasingly massive slowdown effects on the Russian economy. Western financial aid will ensure Ukraine’s solvency in the medium term and prevent its economic and financial collapse.
So far the positive aspects. However, war fatigue (“Ukraine fatigue”) is gradually increasing in the West. Both Russia and Ukraine are currently – still – a long way from serious ceasefire or peace negotiations. Ukraine has not yet regained enough ground for this, and six months later Moscow is still not ready to admit that it has failed to meet the war goals originally announced.
It follows that we should now give Ukraine even more military support in forcing Russian withdrawal decisions. Further German hesitation harms our strategic interests! Apart from that, in this country and in the EU, there are currently three main political issues:
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If gas really does run out in the fall, why not take up Putin’s offer to open the Nord Stream 2 pipeline after all? What if Putin actually travels to Bali for the G20 summit in November? Should Scholz, Macron and so on then boycott the summit? And: Should the issuing of visas to Russian tourists be stopped in the entire Schengen area? This demand from various EU partners is becoming more and more vocal, and a decision is to be taken in Brussels in the next few days.
>>Read also: Ukraine after six months at war with Russia: “Society is still in survival mode”
Regarding Nord Stream 2 (NS2): Anyone who is now seriously toying with the idea of responding to Putin’s poisoned offer to use NS2 has understood nothing geostrategically, is undermining the unity of the EU and NATO and thus the foundations of German security policy and is setting the rest of German reputation and trustworthiness at stake.
On the G20 summit: Herbert Wehner already knew 50 years ago: Whoever goes out the door should be aware of the conditions under which they can come in again and when. So please, Chancellor, no boycott of Bali – otherwise, in the worst case, this could result in self-exclusion for years. Better to turn the tables and agree with the G7 partners that in the presence of Putin, only Russian atrocities and crimes in Ukraine should be denounced. Also to the press.
On the question of issuing visas to Russian tourists: Chancellor Olaf Scholz is against the general ban and speaks of Putin’s war, for which all Russians should not be held responsible. The advocates of a visa ban – including Poland, the Baltic States and Finland – point to the high approval rate among the Russian population for the war of aggression. Russians should not be allowed to spend happy holidays in the Mediterranean while the Russian army is raging in Donbass on their behalf.
Carrying on like this would divide the EU even further
Scholz is certainly right on one central point: a general visa ban would immediately be exploited by Russian propaganda as proof of the entire West’s hostility towards Russia, and Russian citizens would even believe it from Putin. The general visa ban would therefore probably – from a political and strategic point of view – be a shot in the western knee.
Simply carrying on like this would only split the EU even further. Some EU members have already taken separate measures. The Netherlands, for example, stopped issuing visas in Moscow with reference to the reduction in embassy staff forced by Moscow, others such as Finland are counting on a slowdown and only want to issue ten percent of the previous tourist visas.
The war in Ukraine continues.
(Photo: AP)
So what to do? In this case, too, an attempt could be made to turn the tables on the Russian border and police authorities rather than the EU.
One conceivable way would be to oblige Russian tourists to show their colors by ticking a sentence in the visa application to the effect that they expressly do not support the Russian war of aggression against independent Ukraine, which is contrary to international law, and that activities that contradict this, especially during of staying in the EU, would entail a visa ban of several years. Dissidents or humanitarian cases could of course be exempted from this by our consulates in Russia.
Some Russian tourists may then refrain from submitting an application altogether. That’s good. However, if visa applicants are prosecuted by Russian authorities for signing such war-critical statements or are prevented from leaving the country, then the anger of those affected is likely to be directed at least as much against the repressive Russian policy as against the West. tables turned. Black Peter in Moscow.
By the way, if you’ve ever filled out a US visa application, you’ve had to answer even more embarrassing questions. The procedure would therefore not be unusual internationally!
The author is a former ambassador to Washington and headed the Munich Security Conference. He writes this column every 14 days.
More: Read the latest developments in the Ukraine war in the Newsblog.