“Orban has been further strengthened domestically by the election, but may be in a weakened position within the EU,” says Thorsten Benner, director of the Global Public Policy Institute in Berlin. “He lost Poland’s protection by supporting Putin in the Ukraine war. The fact that Orban also spoke about an election victory about Zelensky after his election will only deepen the rift with Poland.”
So far, Orban has not blocked any sanctions, but he has also not allowed arms deliveries to Ukraine via his territory. State-controlled television spreads Russian propaganda about the war.
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The other Eastern European countries, on the other hand, advocate even tougher sanctions against Russia. Poland in particular often leads the discussion.
Members of the European Parliament now see the moment has come when the EU Commission will take tougher action against Hungary – not because of its closeness to Russia, but because of years of corruption, the synchronization of the media and other violations of the rule of law.
>> Also read here: Why EU funds are not enough to slow down Orban and Kaczynski
To this end, the Commission can initiate rule-of-law proceedings that can lead to the freezing of EU funds. After long delays and judicial reviews, it finalized the rules in March and is currently examining the first cases.
Proceedings against Hungary are being prepared
Observers have been expecting for weeks that after the elections in Hungary the time will have come to officially initiate the process. After that, it must be completed within nine months. Hungary could then lose billions in EU funds early next year.
It is unclear how Orban will react to this. “Orban is adept at evading pressure,” says Green MP Daniel Freund. “He will signal a buckling in Brussels and at the same time look for the next way to enrich himself and his friends.” That is why, for example, it is crucial how large the frozen sums are and how quickly Brussels reacts. “If the Commission doesn’t play this hard, Orban can just move on.”
>> Also read here: Orban wins election in Hungary – “You can see our victory from Brussels”
“The Commission should have acted much earlier,” says SPD MP Katharina Barley. “But Orban was under the protection of the conservative heads of government for a long time.” Since he now controls the media in Hungary, he can reinterpret all the guidelines from Brussels as attacks on the Hungarian people.
That’s why the pressure doesn’t bother him much. “The EU sent out a tragic signal,” says Barley. “If you’re bold enough, you can get away with it.”
Different strategy with Poland
So far, Poland and Hungary have often been mentioned in the same sentence when it comes to problems with the rule of law. Both defended themselves together against the pressure from Brussels to guarantee the freedom of the media and the judiciary.
The Commission now has the opportunity to proceed with two different strategies: while Hungary is threatened with freezing EU funds, Poland could soon receive money from the Corona recovery fund after a delay of months.
“If the EU Commission triggers the rule of law mechanism against Hungary this week and releases money for Poland, that could drive the two countries further apart,” says Freund, without recommending it. We also need more pressure against Poland, says Freund.
Barley clearly warns against releasing the funds: “We hear that Poland will soon receive the money and I can’t tell you how appalled I am,” she says. “Poland is only feigning concessions on judicial reform. But that is purely cosmetic.” Although the country needs earmarked funds in order to be able to help refugees, the protection of the rule of law should not be forgotten.
More: Orban’s Fidesz party wins elections in Hungary