Recep Tayyip Erdoğan was once again the winner of the Presidential vote, which went to the second round after the 67th Government election. With the election agenda lagging behind in our country, eyes turned to the dollar rate, which had been stagnant for months.
In the past period, the difference between the CBRT and the free market rates made investors uneasy. The Dollar/TRY rate, which has decreased from 22.50 in the Grand Bazaar since the beginning of the week, is in parallel with the CBRT as of the moment.
However, despite the disappearance of uncertainty, exchange rates started the sharpest upward movement in recent months. An interesting situation emerges when we examine the weekly movements after the start of the Currency Protected Deposit. On a weekly basis, the Dollar has appreciated more than 4% against the Turkish Lira for the first time since June 6, 2022.
According to the CBRT data, the Dollar/TL parity, which started the week at 19.90, saw the figure of 20.90 during the day. As a result of the rising movement in the foreign exchange, gram gold reached its historical peak by exceeding the 1300 TL limit.
Why Is The Dollar Rising?
There are many arguments about why the currency moved up after the election. The economic administration, which has political concerns, made great efforts to preserve the current situation at all costs. The government resorted to many measures to keep the dollar stable until the election. Although the measures taken yielded results, great damage is observed in the macroeconomic data.
CBRT Reserves Melted
As of last week, the net reserve of the CBRT including swaps decreased to -0.2 billion dollars, reaching the lowest level of the last 20 years. According to official data, 25 billion dollars of foreign currency outflow has been realized in the last 2 months from the central bank vault.
Foreign trade data announced during the week also reveal the results of the election economy.
Foreign Trade Deficit Growing
The fact that TL remained valuable against the Dollar despite inflation was also reflected in foreign trade data. According to TUIK data, exports decreased by 3% in the January-April period. However, the import item increased by 7% despite the low energy prices. Exporters had expressed their complaints about the currency-based competition problem in the pre-election period.
After the election process, where public satisfaction is more important than macroeconomic conditions, the government can focus on key issues. Speaking on the evening of the election, Erdogan pointed to the problem of inflation as a priority.
“Turkish Economy Model” Whether the policy will continue is still a matter of debate. President Erdogan, with the current policy throughout the campaign “keep going” although this may change. Markets; If names such as Mehmet Şimşek, Cevdet Yılmaz and Lütfi Elvan take office, a more orthodox economic management awaits.
Year End Dollar Forecasts
Many reputable international institutions in the world continue to follow Turkey closely. Leading banks and investment companies recently made predictions about the dollar/TL parity after the election:
- Central Bank: 23 TL
- HSBC: 24 TL
- Standard Chartered: 36 TL (if current policy continues)
- Morgan Stanley: $27
- Wells Fargo: 20 TL
Risk Disclosure: The articles and articles on Kriptokoin.com do not constitute investment advice. Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies are high-risk assets, and you should do your due diligence and do your own research before investing in these currencies. You can lose some or all of your money by investing in Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. Remember that your transfers and transactions are at your own risk and any losses that may occur are your responsibility. Cryptokoin.com does not recommend buying or selling any cryptocurrencies or digital assets, nor is Kriptokoin.com an investment advisor. For this reason, Kriptokoin.com and the authors of the articles on the site cannot be held responsible for your investment decisions. Readers should do their own research before taking any action regarding the company, assets or services in this article.
Disclaimer: Advertisements on Kriptokoin.com are carried out through third-party advertising channels. In addition, Kriptokoin.com also includes sponsored articles and press releases on its site. For this reason, advertising links directed from Kriptokoin.com are on the site completely independent of Kriptokoin.com’s approval, and visits and pop-ups directed by advertising links are the responsibility of the user. The advertisements on Kriptokoin.com and the pages directed by the links in the sponsored articles do not bind Kriptokoin.com in any way.
Warning: Citing the news content of Kriptokoin.com and quoting by giving a link is subject to the permission of Kriptokoin.com. No content on the site can be copied, reproduced or published on any platform without permission. Legal action will be taken against those who use the code, design, text, graphics and all other content of Kriptokoin.com in violation of intellectual property law and relevant legislation.