Up to half a trillion euros in economic damage

Berlin An abrupt halt to Russian energy supplies could plunge the German economy into a historic crisis. At least that is the conclusion reached by the economist Tom Krebs from the University of Mannheim in a study published on Monday. A gas embargo would cause German economic output to collapse by up to twelve percent within the first year – a loss of almost half a trillion euros.

It is possible that a gas embargo would only lead to an economic slump like in the corona pandemic of 2020 and in the financial crisis of 2009. However, it “could also lead to an economic crisis such as (West) Germany has not experienced since the Second World War,” warns Krebs.

In any case, the social consequences are more serious than in 2020 and 2009, because after two years of the pandemic, the economy is already under stress due to global supply chain problems and the fight against climate change.