Brussels, Vilnius 22 countries have already successfully completed the acceptance process. It has probably never happened before that a President of the EU Commission evaluated an application for membership in the national colors of a candidate. In a blue blouse and yellow jacket and with a eulogy for the government in Kyiv, Ursula von der Leyen on Friday strongly recommended that EU countries make Ukraine a candidate country.
The heads of state and government have the opportunity to implement the recommendation at their summit next Thursday, but they would have to do so unanimously.
Von der Leyen left no doubt that she was serious: Ukraine’s democratic system was very solid, the public administration worked well, reforms were going well, civil society was very lively, the education system was well developed and the national debt was within limits. The digital capabilities and the digital infrastructure are to be admired.
Ukraine, the embassy said, will not be a second-class candidate. The status is not only meant symbolically.
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Von der Leyen particularly emphasized the efficiency of the administration, which also worked during the war: “We know that because we work very closely with the Ukrainian administration,” she said. A Commission official noted that the Ukrainian state is currently “functioning impressively well”. The country is poorer than all previous EU members. The per capita income is not even half as high as that of bottom-placed Bulgaria.
Need for reform on the issues of oligarchs and minorities
The assessment by the EU Commission includes naming areas in which further progress is necessary. In the case of Ukraine, these are primarily measures intended to ensure an independent and functioning rule of law, such as measures against corruption, money laundering and the excessive influence of oligarchs. The drafting of a law intended to secure the rights of the Russian minority is also being called for.
If the EU sees progress, it can take the next step. That would be the opening of accession negotiations. These are also open-ended, so they do not always lead to membership.
>> Read here: Why Ukraine is now part of the European power grid despite the danger of cyber attacks
EU Commission recommends Ukraine and Moldova as accession candidates
According to the Commission’s recommendation, the Republic of Moldova should now also become a candidate for accession. Russian soldiers have been stationed in the country between Ukraine and Romania for a long time, and the government does not have complete control over its territory. But there are no fights there.
Moldova has not been on a pro-European course for as long as Ukraine. The country still has a long way to go, said von der Leyen. The economy and public administration needed major improvements.
Georgia, which had applied for candidate status at the same time as the other two states, was rejected. The country must “come together politically” in order to be successful.
However, a “European perspective” was also promised to Georgia. This means that the EU sees the country as a potential future member. So far it has not explicitly done so, not even in Ukraine and Moldova. The neighborhood policy towards these countries is now becoming an accession policy. “Breaking that firewall is really a big step,” said a Commission official.
EU would have to change internal rules
The recommendations could now also trigger dynamics in other accession processes, at least that’s what Enlargement Commissioner Oliver Varhelyi hopes. He hopes Bulgaria will end its blocking stance against Albania and North Macedonia’s motions, he said – within days rather than months. The Commission has recommended opening accession negotiations for both candidate countries.
The deputy director of the Bruegel Institute in Brussels also sees the connection: “What we do with Ukraine also defines how we do it with other countries,” Maria Demertzis told the Handelsblatt.
The EU is seen as tired of enlargement. Since 2003, the number of EU members has increased from 15 to 27. As a result, the Union’s ability to act has been severely restricted because a unanimous vote is required in many procedures. Achieving this became more difficult with each accession. The sanctions against Russia would probably be more severe if they were not stopped by individual states.
Progress in the accession process has therefore repeatedly been blocked by individual EU countries. With their trip to Kyiv, however, Chancellor Olaf Scholz and his colleagues from France and Italy have now committed themselves to standing up for the candidate status of Ukraine and Moldova. Many Eastern European countries have been campaigning vehemently for this for weeks anyway.
The Baltic states are also in favor of Ukraine’s candidate status; The foreign ministers of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania traveled to Ukraine on Monday last week and met President Volodomir Zelenskiy. In a statement, Latvia reiterated its “strong support” for the Baltic states.
Estonian Foreign Minister Andres Sutt welcomed the Commission’s recommendation. The decision was “a landmark event that these countries and Estonia have long awaited.” The war in Ukraine is “not only taking place between Ukraine and Russia, but between different value systems,” he stressed.
The final decision could therefore also affect the relationship between the EU and the Baltic States. “A stronger connection between the EU and Ukraine is at the core of the conflict with Russia,” says Florian Schröder, Managing Director of the German-Baltic Chamber of Commerce. From the point of view of the Balts, it is therefore a question of “Europe clearly showing its colors”. Schröder added: “A rejection of the accession candidate status or a postponement would cause incomprehension.”
Bruegel expert Demertzis also thinks that the EU needs to expand. At the same time, however, she points to problems: “The bigger the EU is, the more powerful it is. But there is a trade-off: the bigger the EU, the more difficult it is to govern.”
There are repeated calls, for example in foreign policy, to abolish the principle of unanimity. In addition, one could rely more on different speeds, i.e. on projects in which not all states have to participate. So far, this has been the case in defense policy and also in the currency: some states have deliberately decided against introducing the euro.
For Ukraine, however, it is now a matter of security issues. The possible accession to the EU will also be viewed in the light of what it means for the current situation. “People are dying in Ukraine,” said Demertzis. “It’s about giving the Ukrainians a future in order to be able to master the present.”
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