Ukraine at odds over Crimea talks – possible withdrawal at Bakhmut

“In order to minimize Ukraine’s military casualties, threats to civilians in the occupied territories, and destruction of civilian infrastructure, Ukraine plans to let Russia choose how it will leave Crimea. If they are not willing to leave voluntarily, Ukraine will continue to liberate their country by military means,” Tasheva added.

Earlier, an adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said the Ukrainian leadership was ready to hold talks with Russia over Crimea after a planned spring offensive. “If we achieve our strategic goals on the battlefield and get to the administrative borders of Crimea, we are ready to open the diplomatic side and discuss the matter,” deputy head of the presidential office in Kyiv Andriy Sybiha told the Financial Times” on Thursday.

President Volodymyr Zelensky had previously rejected negotiations with Moscow as long as Russian soldiers are still on Ukrainian territory – including the Crimean Peninsula, which Russia had annexed in 2014.

Sybiha’s comments are Kiev’s first diplomatic thrust since the ceasefire negotiations broke off a year ago, shortly after Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine began, the newspaper wrote. Military experts are expecting an offensive by Ukrainian troops this spring to recapture areas occupied by Russians.

The most likely direction is an approach in the south of the country towards the coast in order to drive a wedge between the Russian troops stationed there. However, it is unclear whether the weapons supplied to Kiev by the West will be sufficient to ensure the success of such an operation.

According to Sybiha, Kiev does not rule out a military conquest of Crimea. The advisor to the presidential office, Mykhailo Podoliak, also made it clear that the talks were not about territorial concessions. “Real negotiations” with Moscow can only take place after the complete withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukrainian territory, including Crimea, he insisted on Kiev’s well-known position.

However, Western military experts fear that attempts to conquer Crimea could lead to a significant escalation of the war and could even provoke Kremlin chief Vladimir Putin to use nuclear weapons, since Moscow regards the strategically important peninsula as its own territory. The nuclear power had always emphasized that it would defend Crimea with all the means at its disposal.

The situation around Bachmut is coming to a head

In the east of the country, the situation of the Ukrainian troops is becoming increasingly precarious. The armed forces are in a difficult position in the battle for the city in Donbass, according to Zelenesky. “For me, the most important thing is that we don’t lose our soldiers, and of course the generals on the ground will make the right decisions if the situation continues to deteriorate and there is a risk that we will lose our people because they will be surrounded,” said he and thus for the first time vaguely alluded to a possible withdrawal.

Will Ukraine withdraw from Bakhmut?

According to the Ukrainian military Thursday morning, Russian forces are stepping up their attacks with the intention of completely taking the city in eastern Ukraine. Bakhmut, along with the southwestern towns of Avdiivka and Marjinka, is currently “the epicenter of hostilities,” the Ukrainian military said.

However, the head of the Russian mercenary group Wagner, Yevgeny Prigozhin, stated that Bakhmut was still partly in the hands of Ukrainian troops. “It must be said clearly that the enemy is not gone yet,” he wrote on Telegram.

Prigozhin has repeatedly criticized the Russian military leadership. In his contribution on Thursday he made three points clear in this connection. The Russian troops should hold their positions better, he wrote with an exclamation mark.

In addition, the command structure must be well organized. He hadn’t seen General Sergey Surovikin like that for a long time. Surovikin had been in command of Ukraine for several months before Chief of Staff Valery Gerasimov was placed directly above him. As a third point, Prigozhin reiterated that supplies of ammunition must be secured. He had previously criticized the military leadership in this regard.

The government in Kiev has so far emphasized that it intends to stick with Bakhmut. “Bakhmut has the important task of inflicting as many casualties on Russia as possible and, above all, preparing a counterattack,” which is expected at the end of April, military analyst Pavel Naroshny told the Ukrainian “NV Radio”.

More Handelsblatt articles on the war in Ukraine:

Bakhmut is one of the last regions in Donetsk province not yet in Russian hands. The battle there is one of the fiercest in the Russian war of aggression. According to military expert Wladyslaw Selesnijow, it is vital for the Ukrainian armed forces to hold the west of the city in order to secure supplies via this route and to be able to withdraw if necessary. Otherwise they are threatened with encirclement.

As long as the city is held to some extent, Russian troops would be tied up there, Selesniyov explained. Above all, fighters from the Russian mercenary group Wagner are active there.

More: Stationing of nuclear weapons in Belarus: “The target for a Russian nuclear strike would be Poland”

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