Traffic light coalition heading for major conflicts

“We need more offensive,” says an FDP government member. The Liberals want to score points with their core concerns, but the Social Democrats and Greens have no desire to be pushed onto the defensive – especially since the SPD also sees a need to catch up on issues for their clientele, such as even greater support for pensioners in view of the high inflation.

A Green Party politician predicts that the next few months will not be easy. The friction would certainly increase on some conflict issues. This applies all the more if the state elections in Lower Saxony at the beginning of October turn out badly for the traffic light parties. “Then it should be uncomfortable,” says a liberal.

Officially, top politicians from the SPD, Greens and FDP still emphasize that the mood between them is good. “Despite all the friction, the climate for discussion is still pleasant,” says one coalition partner. And a comrade adds that the coalition is still relatively new in office and has to deal with two major crises with Corona and the Ukraine war.

But it works well, so the SPD man. “It shows that everyone acts with great rationality.”

And yet many in the traffic light are preparing for the fact that there will be further disputes in the coming weeks and months. In some areas, the conflicts are already foreseeable.

Distribution struggles: budget and relief

FDP leader Lindner will be at the center of many disputes. The finance minister is negotiating the budget for the coming year with his colleagues in the cabinet, and he absolutely wants to comply with the debt brake again.

To do this, the finance minister would have to drastically reduce new borrowing. Lindner will therefore have to cross out the wish lists of his cabinet colleagues.

That is why many of the Greens in particular are questioning the debt brake project. They point out that the government still has to support the citizens because of the increased energy prices. In the end, it is more important for the liberals to relieve people than to insist on the debt brake, says a Green.

However, Lindner calculates differently. Due to rising tax revenues, he certainly sees the possibility of relieving the burden on citizens if discipline is otherwise maintained in the budget.

The Minister of Finance wants to compensate for the so-called cold progression. These are the creeping tax increases that result from the interaction of inflation, wage increases and higher tax rates.

The finance minister argues that the traffic light ruled out tax increases, which must also apply to the hidden burdens of cold progression. The SPD and the Greens, on the other hand, point out that nothing on cold progression has been agreed in the coalition agreement.

>> Read here: Climate money or tax cut? Traffic light coalition argues about further relief package

With Labor Minister Heil, the SPD is drumming for the introduction of social climate money. The idea is that anyone who earns less than 4,000 euros gross should get it. Anyone who is above that, however, would get nothing. Lindner has therefore called for a “counter-suggestion” to reduce wage and income tax. Whoever prevails is open. One thing is clear: Both together will hardly be financially feasible.

Dangers in autumn: dispute over the Corona course

With a view to a potentially critical corona situation in autumn, the traffic light coalition has been struggling for weeks to expand state protection requirements. The Prime Ministers of the federal states and Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) have just agreed to take early precautions. All options for action that would be needed should be available.

The current Infection Protection Act expires at the end of September – and with it the legal basis for the basic protective measures currently in force, such as a mask requirement in buses, trains and clinics. The traffic light factions in the Bundestag must decide to extend or even tighten them, but both are controversial, especially in the case of the FDP. She wants as little action as possible.

The liberals opposed extensive protective measures as early as spring and would have preferred to abolish the obligation to wear masks in all areas. The SPD and the Greens assume that the negotiations with the coalition partner will be just as tough this time.

>> Read here: Scholz announces “concerted action” against high prices

“The FDP would do well to have a strategy debate,” says a comrade. She repeats the old mistake of the SPD in the grand coalition: “Do more of the wrong thing, then everything will be better.” In particular, the corona policy has damaged the FDP, which can be seen in the election results among older voters in Saarland and NRW.

Leading liberals have been making it clear for days that they want to wait for the scientific evaluation of the previous corona measures before deciding on the future course. As early as next week, the Federal Government’s Expert Council intends to present recommendations for autumn and winter. A report on the effectiveness of the previous corona restrictions is expected at the end of June.

Health Minister Lauterbach, on the other hand, is already openly talking about stricter measures – to the annoyance of the coalition partner. Measures such as upper limits at major events, the obligation to wear masks and access restrictions must be made possible in autumn and winter, he said. According to the FDP, experts and their expertise would simply be ignored here.

But Lauterbach is confident that he can convince the FDP to extend the Infection Protection Act and the mask requirement. There isn’t much time left. There are still two weeks of parliament before the summer recess to get the new law off the ground. After that, there will only be another opportunity to do so in September.

Green light for Ceta? Controversy over trade policy

There is also trouble about Ceta. The free trade agreement between the EU and Canada has been in force for a number of years. However, in order to be able to fully apply it, the national parliaments still have to ratify it. The Bundestag has not done so to this day.

The reason: The Greens have always been bothered by two passages on international special courts, there is a party congress resolution against the ratification of Ceta. The SPD and FDP, on the other hand, want to sign the agreement as quickly as possible.

>> Read here: Stop of the traffic light in trade policy – CDU and CSU increase the pressure

Until now, the traffic light had bought itself time by waiting for the end of proceedings by the Federal Constitutional Court on Ceta. But the verdict is now in.

The Greens have been fighting for their position for weeks now. They would prefer to negotiate the relevant passages of the agreement again. But that would have to happen at EU level, involving all member states – which is therefore considered highly unrealistic.

So the only thing left for the Greens is: ratify or leave it. But the party left has so far categorically ruled out a yes to Ceta in its current form.

If the Greens refuse to sign, this should cause considerable trouble in the coalition. Some in the traffic light even say that this could tip the entire coalition, because the SPD and FDP have committed themselves so strongly to Ceta. Before the meetings of the Economic Committee, there should be calls from the FDP economic politicians to the Greens almost every week to ask whether a decision has finally been made.

Now it’s going to be a showdown: The Green Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck wants to travel to Canada in June. He will hardly be able to afford to board the government plane without a decision on Ceta.

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