London The search for a successor to British Prime Minister Liz Truss, who resigned on Thursday, has thrown the Conservative Party into fresh chaos. The reason for this is the possible candidacy of ex-Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who only had to resign from office in July due to misconduct during the corona lockdown.
Candidates for the post of Tory party leader have until Monday noon to get at least 100 MPs behind them and declare their candidacy. Traditionally, the new party leader also becomes Prime Minister, since the Conservatives have a majority of around 70 seats in the House of Commons.
If just one candidate reaches the 100 mark by Monday, he or she automatically wins the election and Britain has a new Prime Minister.
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If there are two or three candidates, there will first be a runoff in the parliamentary group and then an online vote among the approximately 80,000 Tory party members. The result would then be announced in a week on October 28th.
Here is an overview of the three most promising applicants and their chances:
Rishi Sunak
The former chancellor of the exchequer is considered a prominent economic politician.
(Photo: AP)
The former Chancellor of the Exchequer is the favorite in the successor race. The English bookmakers see him with 50 percent well ahead of Johnson with almost 40 and Mordaunt with a good ten percent.
Sunak was only narrowly defeated by Liz Truss in the summer and already had a majority in the faction. What speaks in his favor is that he predicted the economic consequences of Truss’ disastrous financial policy plans fairly accurately and enjoys a high level of credibility on the financial markets as a solid and competent economic politician.
However, the 42-year-old son of African immigrants will not have it easy. Many party members accuse him of bringing down then-Prime Minister Johnson by resigning in the summer. The right wing of the Tories in particular distrusts Sunak and considers him a disguised “socialist” because of the tax increases he advocates. The former finance minister is seen as a pragmatist, but also as an advocate of Brexit.
Boris Johnson
The former prime minister is still in the middle of a parliamentary investigation.
(Photo: AP)
The former prime minister found out about Truss’ resignation while on vacation in the Dominican Republic and rushed back to London on Friday. Johnson will especially backed by right-wing conservatives like Economy Secretary Jacob Rees-Mogg, but still enjoys a lot of sympathy at the grassroots level.
What speaks in his favor is that he was the only one of all possible candidates to win an election in 2019 and can therefore claim a voter mandate. The former journalist and London mayor is considered a genius campaigner and many Tories trust only him to save the badly battered party from going under in the next general election.
What is perhaps his most crucial disadvantage is that an investigation is underway in the House of Commons for allegedly lying to Parliament about violations of the Corona rules. If the allegations are confirmed, Johnson would be expelled from the House of Commons and would have to resign from the government office for which he is now running.
Some Tory MPs have threatened to leave the party should Johnson become prime minister again. Conservative party veteran Roger Gale said he would not be allowed to hold government office until the investigation into Johnson was completed. In the face of strong resistance in the group, it is uncertain whether Johnson can even clear the 100 hurdle.
Penny Mordaunt
Penny Mordaunt, Conservative Majority Leader in the British House of Commons, does not want to form a team with favorite Sunak.
(Photo: Reuters)
The 49-year-old President of the British House of Commons has pushed herself to the fore mainly through her convincing performance in Parliament last week. Replacing the already ailing Liz Truss on Monday, Mordaunt ably defied opposition attacks.
As a former minister, she has sufficient government experience and most recently headed the Ministry of Defense in 2019. She is a reservist in the Royal Navy.
Mordaunt applied for the leadership of the party and government in the summer, but ended up in third place behind Truss and Sunak. In the Conservative Party, she is considered to be a particularly good team player and, in the opinion of many Tories, is in the best position to bring the divided party back together.
Conservative circles say she is the candidate most feared by the opposition Labor Party. Mordaunt ruled out an alliance with Sunak on Friday, saying she didn’t want to “play second fiddle,” her camp said.
Opposition pushes for new elections – polls see Labor with a huge lead
In addition to the top three candidates, Defense Secretary Ben Wallace, Home Secretary Suella Braverman, who was fired by Truss, and International Trade Secretary Kemi Badenoch are also named as possible contenders for the top jobs. However, all three are only given a slim chance of reaching the 100 mark.
Meanwhile, the opposition is pushing for new elections. “There can be no revolving door for chaos,” said the Labor leader, referring to Tories’ attempts to install the third Conservative PM in just five months without a vote.
In a new opinion poll, the Labor Party is well ahead of the Tories with 53 percent, who only manage 14 percent. “We continue to anticipate that there will be strong short-term opposition within the Conservative party to snap elections, but the leadership change could push the possibility of a snap general election by 2023,” said Modupe Adegbembo, economist at AXA Investment Managers.
Economy is down
No matter who wins the race, the new prime minister must lead Britain out of a deep economic crisis. In September, public debt rose by £20 billion, more than analysts had expected.
Retail sales continued to fall in late summer and consumer confidence remained at its lowest level in 50 years.
More: Government crisis in London: Prime Minister Liz Truss resigns