Bangkok India had recently played only a subordinate role in the travel plans of top European politicians. After Chancellor Angela Merkel’s visit in 2019, only two heads of state and government from Europe visited the world’s largest democracy: Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen and Russia’s President Vladimir Putin, who formed the close partnership there shortly before invading Ukraine confirmed with India.
In view of the war of aggression, which India has so far not condemned, the West is now relying on an unusually large-scale diplomatic offensive to win the subcontinent over to its side. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who is expected in India this Thursday, will start things off. He would like to persuade his counterpart Narendra Modi to distance himself from Russia.
At the weekend, he will be followed by EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, who also wants to discuss the Ukraine war. Finally, at the beginning of May, Chancellor Olaf Scholz has the chance to personally talk to the Indian prime minister to adopt a more critical course towards Russia. He’s expecting Modi in Berlin.
India’s stance on the conflict is of significant importance in an attempt to isolate Russia internationally. The country of 1.4 billion people is the largest economy after China that has not joined the sanctions against Russia. Instead of cutting economic ties to Moscow, India is expanding its business with the country. Within a few weeks after the start of the war, the government in New Delhi ordered almost as much oil from Russia as it had in the entire previous year.
Top jobs of the day
Find the best jobs now and
be notified by email.
India’s coal imports from Russia also rose significantly in March – to their highest level since the beginning of 2020. Analysts expect that the Kremlin will be able to cushion the consequences of the coal embargo imposed by the EU by increasing deliveries to India and China.
Russia is India’s main arms supplier
In the midst of a domestic political crisis over his “Partygate” affair, which involved boisterous celebrations during strict corona restrictions, British Prime Minister Johnson now wants to dissuade India from providing economic support to Russia. At a cabinet meeting this week, he said the UK wanted to work with countries like India “to provide alternative sourcing options” and “diversify supply chains away from Russia,” the government said.
It’s not just about energy, but also about armaments: Russia has been India’s most important arms supplier for decades. In recent years, India has also expanded its arms deals with countries such as the USA, France and Israel.
>> Also read here: India wants to do business with Russia despite sanctions
However, the government in Moscow was still able to hold its own at the top – partly because of the Kremlin’s willingness to also supply advanced weapons such as the S-400 missile defense system.
Johnson is now banking on deepening defense cooperation with India in order to reduce its dependence on Russia. This could include the production of British armaments in Indian factories. Making counter-offers rather than building pressure is the official strategy to get India to reposition itself.
Dubious alliance with high potential for trouble for the West.
(Photo: imago images/NurPhoto)
Recently, New Delhi has reacted extremely sensitively to criticism of India’s Russia policy. Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar has repeatedly accused the West of hypocrisy: Europe buys every afternoon in Moscow as much energy as India recently received from Russia, he said during a visit to Washington.
Johnson appears to be adjusting to this. He doesn’t want to lecture India under any circumstances, he said. “With autocratic states threatening our peace and prosperity, it is vital that democracies and friends stand together,” he wrote on Twitter. As a major economic power, India is a highly valued strategic partner.
EU resumes free trade talks with India
The trip, which will take Johnson to Modi’s home state of Gujarat and then to New Delhi for official talks, is also intended to advance free trade negotiations that Britain and India began earlier this year. In the event of an agreement, the annual trade volume could increase by the equivalent of more than 30 billion euros a year, according to government estimates. One of the points of contention is the demanded opening of the Indian alcohol and milk market.
Commission President von der Leyen, who will be in India on Sunday and Monday, is facing a similar balancing act between geopolitics and detailed trade issues. The Commission announced that she wanted to present “the EU perspective on the current geopolitical challenges” and discuss the economic agenda between the EU and India with a focus on free trade. The EU and India are expected to officially resume free trade talks in June after years of hiatus.
>> Also read here: Putin’s Last Friends – These countries condone or support aggressive war
However, the government in New Delhi sees the danger that the differences of opinion with regard to Russia could strain relations with Europe: “The European Union is India’s third largest trading partner. India wants to ensure that ongoing cooperation is not hampered by the stress caused by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine,” a government official told India Today.
Modi’s upcoming trip to Europe therefore serves to cultivate relationships, which are obviously urgently needed. In Germany, he wants to take part in the sixth Indo-German government consultations – a format that is supposed to take place every two years, but was postponed last year in view of the corona pandemic. Modi is also planning a trip to Denmark and a visit to Emmanuel Macron – at least if he can hold on as French President in the weekend elections.
More: Modi meets Lavrov: India rolls out the red carpet for Russia