This is how other countries look to the new government

The relationship with China will be one of the decisive factors in the future federal government’s foreign policy. It will show whether Scholz or rather Baerbock shape foreign policy. And it is also being followed closely in countries like the USA and Japan, which are hoping for stronger democratic ties in global systemic competition.

The Japanese business newspaper “Nikkei” comments that Germany’s good relations with China under Chancellor Angela Merkel have changed from strength to weakness as the confrontation between Washington and Beijing intensified. In an increasingly divided world, Scholz must stand up for his ideals and show solidarity with the partners who share these values.

Moscow hopes for Scholz and Nord Stream 2

The stronger emphasis on human rights, democratic alliances and the climate change is viewed critically in Moscow. The Kremlin does not make official statements. But the Deputy Head of the Federation Council, Konstantin Kosachev, who is responsible for foreign policy, says: “Of course, the appearance of a Green at the wheel of the Foreign Ministry will hardly be a positive factor, especially in relation to Russia.”

In the coalition agreement, Russia is criticized for the annexation of Crimea, the support of the Belarusian ruler Alexander Lukashenko and the “comprehensive restriction of civil and democratic freedoms”. In contrast to China, however, there is also talk of a new collaboration on future issues such as hydrogen and health, as well as on climate issues.

The Kremlin is counting on being able to enforce the controversial Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline with the new federal government – despite fierce opposition from the Greens. Russia policy is traditionally determined by the Chancellor, explains Artjom Sokolow from the Center for European Studies at the Institute for International Relations at the MGIMO diplomatic workshop. Scholz is not interested in worsening the differences with Russia.

Conflict with neighbor Poland over the rule of law, with Great Britain over Brexit

Poland sees it quite differently: “I expect the new German government to do everything possible to prevent Nord Stream 2 from becoming an instrument in President Putin’s arsenal,” said Poland’s Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki.

A confrontation between Warsaw and Berlin is looming over the dispute over the rule of law in Poland, which the future traffic light government intends to strictly demand. Merkel wanted to act as a mediator in the conflict. The Polish government is also likely to dislike the “further development to a federal European federal state” aimed at by the traffic light coalition through a treaty change.

The conflict with Great Britain also seems to be programmed. Both Baerbock and Scholz are considered sharp critics of the Brexit hardliner course of British Prime Minister Boris Johnson. It was attentively noted in London that the coalition agreement explicitly mentions the Northern Ireland Protocol.

“We insist on full compliance with the agreed agreements, in particular with regard to the Northern Ireland Protocol and the Good Friday Agreement,” write the traffic light partners. In the event of violations, one relies on the “consistent application of all agreed measures and countermeasures”.

Scholz had already attracted attention several times in Great Britain with expressions critical of Brexit – most recently when he named the end of freedom of movement as one of the causes during the gasoline crisis in September. On the whole, however, the SPD man is also considered a pragmatist in London, who will soften all too brash advances by the Greens and Liberals.

Paris, Rome and Madrid hope for new debt rules

In Paris, where Scholz’s first official trip is going, the coalition agreement was well received in government circles. The Franco-German cooperation and the goal of European sovereignty were strongly emphasized. France is confident that President Emmanuel Macron will work well with Scholz.

The first big test is imminent: France will take over the EU Council Presidency on January 1st. In the defense sector in particular, there are differences in what the two countries understand by European sovereignty. Another point of conflict is the handling of atomic energy and the question of whether this form of energy is classified as sustainable in the EU rules.

Italy is hoping for a strong Paris-Rome-Berlin trio to drive the EU. In the spring there is to be a German-Italian meeting at ministerial level. The final version of a treaty for stronger bilateral cooperation could be drawn up there.

However, the national debt and a possible reform of the debt rules in the EU will put Germany’s future relationship with France and Italy to the test. The traffic light parties want to further develop the fiscal policy rules in the EU, make them “simpler and more transparent”. The announcement was well received in Italy and Spain. However, the details are likely to be wrestled.

Greece looks at a finance minister Lindner with skepticism

However, the finance minister-designate Christian Lindner is causing skepticism among the southern EU countries. In France he is considered to be the embodiment of the stricter German budget discipline. The newspaper “Les Échos” commented: “Of course the presence of the FDP will not make the tasks in Paris any easier.”

In Greece, the skepticism goes even deeper. Lindner is “harder than Schäuble”, writes the newspaper “Kathimerini”. As finance minister during the euro debt crisis, Wolfgang Schäuble was the most hated foreign politician in Greece because of his strict austerity measures.

What is not forgotten in Greece is that Lindner accused Schäuble during the debt crisis of showing too much leniency with the Greeks. The FDP politician then called for the country to be thrown out of the euro zone.

In Greek government circles, comments have so far been held back. Even if Lindner is a hardliner, it will still be Scholz who will determine the policy guidelines in Berlin in the future, it is said unofficially.

During the debt crisis, both the SPD and the Greens showed understanding for the difficult situation in Greece. Even in the dispute with neighboring Turkey, the SPD and the Greens feel better understood than Merkel, who was often criticized in Athens for being too close to Head of State Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

Stockholm, Madrid and Washington are looking forward to SPD chancellors

The socialist Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez is looking forward to a Social Democrat in the Chancellery – and his plans: raising the minimum wage, social assistance and investing in education.

“It is no coincidence that the social democratic answer is the only correct one to overcome this crisis,” he tweeted. The ruling Social Democrats in Sweden see it similarly. At the beginning of November, Scholz was the most prominent guest speaker at her party conference in Gothenburg.

In the United States, the New York Times points out that since Bill Clinton’s second term in office there have been no center-left governments in Washington and Berlin at the same time. This is an “opportunity for better relationships”. However, few in Berlin wanted to bet too much on Washington.

Conversely, the conservative think tank Heritage Foundation warns: “Germany should lead the way in fending off attempts at destabilization by China and Russia.” But the new German government could turn out to be a “weak link” in the transatlantic community. Washington must redouble its efforts to strengthen ties.

More: Financing of the traffic light projects wobbles considerably