Paris, Brussels, Denver, Berlin After recognizing the pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine, the West is stepping up its crackdown on Russian President Vladimir Putin: US President Joe Biden ordered new sanctions, and the EU is likely to agree on a sanctions package on Tuesday. On Monday evening, Biden discussed a joint response to Putin’s decision to recognize the breakaway regions of Donetsk and Luhansk as independent states with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and French President Emmanuel Macron.
“All three interlocutors agreed that this unilateral step by Russia is a clear breach of the Minsk Agreement,” the federal government announced. Germany, France and the US sharply condemned Putin’s decision. This step will not go unanswered.
Macron called for “targeted European sanctions” against Moscow. The recognition of the self-proclaimed “People’s Republics” in eastern Ukraine was “clearly a unilateral violation of Russia’s international obligations and a blow to Ukraine’s sovereignty”. Macron called for the United Nations Security Council to hold a special session on the Ukraine crisis.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres sees the recognition of the separatist regions as a violation of Ukraine’s territorial integrity and sovereignty. The United Nations would continue to support Ukraine’s sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity within its internationally recognized borders, a spokesman for Guterres said.
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Macron’s environment said that the EU would draw up a catalog of sanctions on Tuesday that would not only answer the latest escalation, but also possible further steps by Putin against Ukraine. “We most likely haven’t seen everything yet,” said an Élysée representative, referring to Russian action.
By decree, Biden issued far-reaching sanctions for the affected regions on Monday. New investments, trade, financing and financial transactions by US citizens and organizations will be prohibited in the future. The same applies to exports to the USA. Russia’s actions “pose an unusual and extraordinary threat to US national security and foreign policy,” Biden said. Further measures could follow on Tuesday, the White House said in the evening. The steps announced on Monday are independent of sanctions that the United States and its allies have prepared in the event of a Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Gradual sanctions expected from the EU
In the past few days, the West had threatened Russia with “high costs” for violating Ukraine’s state integrity. The secret negotiations on the sanctions are now practically complete. It’s not just about people and entities associated with the Separatist regions. The package includes capital freezes for Russian banks, an export ban on certain high-tech components, and entry and asset restrictions for Putin’s confidants. The controversial Nord Stream 2 Baltic Sea pipeline is also likely to be stopped.
The first statements by EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and Council President Charles Michels therefore point to a step-by-step approach. “The Union will impose sanctions on those involved in this illegal activity,” EU leaders said in a joint statement.
The White House also condemned the recognition of the breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine as a “blatant violation of Russia’s international obligations”. The US government expected this step from Putin, “so we can react immediately,” said Biden’s spokeswoman.
Market expert Mohamed El-Erian, who advises Allianz among other things, assumes “that the situation will become even more tense and volatile”. There is no step that could “immediately break the spiral of Russia’s escalation of the conflict and sanctions in response, although we very much wish that it would,” he wrote on Twitter. El-Erian fears a war in Ukraine could lead to stagflation for which “the global economy and markets are not prepared.”
The speech in which Putin announced the recognition of the separatists in Ukraine on Monday evening was received with disbelief in Western capitals. A senior Macron adviser said Putin appeared increasingly “paranoid”. Macron noticed the change in the Russian President when he met him two weeks ago for crisis talks in Moscow. “The Putin he saw in the Kremlin was not the same one he had last met in 2019.”
Putin accuses NATO of deception
In the televised speech, despite the lack of evidence, Putin spoke of a mass crime against people of Russian origin in eastern Ukraine. “The so-called civilized world prefers to ignore the genocide in Donbass committed by Kiev,” the president said. The United States recently accused Russia of possibly wanting to use the accusation of genocide as a pretext for an invasion.
Putin also accused NATO of years of deception. When Germany was reunited in Soviet times, Russia was promised that NATO would not expand a bit to the east. “They betrayed us,” he said. The President also warned that nuclear weapons could be manufactured in Ukraine. “Ukraine actually still has Soviet nuclear technologies and delivery systems for such weapons.”
In Paris in particular, people are disillusioned with the Russian head of state. Macron had repeatedly spoken to Putin over the past few weeks and tried to find a political solution. On Monday night, after a phone call between the two presidents, the Élysée Palace announced that Putin had agreed in principle to a summit with Biden on the Ukraine crisis.
Now it is said from Élysée circles that Putin has broken his word to Macron and also his promises made in public speeches. The Russian President makes commitments one day, which he then breaks the next day. In his televised address, Putin spread “absolutely false” allegations against Ukraine and the West.
“Putin’s speech on Monday significantly strengthens the credibility of Joe Biden and the US intelligence services,” believes Daniel Alpert, co-founder of the investment bank Westwood Capital, who also teaches at Cornell University in Ithaca, New York. “The decision to go public early and repeatedly with her findings about Putin’s plans has proven to be the right one.”
More: Putin Goes All In – Orders Troops to Be Deployed to Eastern Ukraine