“The war could end this year.”

“With our further investments, we will have to think more carefully about what dependencies we create and whether we can achieve our goals in the long term, such as limiting global warming. We have to make our expectations clear when it comes to investments and react accordingly in the event of disappointments,” says Herdegen.

The international law expert sees opportunities for a new globalization – via free trade agreements but also with an arbitrator like the World Trade Organization. China in particular is very interested in her. “States like China, like us, have an interest in economic relations taking a predictable and legally sound course,” the professor from the University of Bonn is certain.

Read the full interview here:

Professor Herdegen, is the western world in an economic war with Russia?
We find ourselves in a conflict that forces us to exhaust the reservoir of economic countermeasures. The Russian war of annihilation leaves us with no alternative. Russia is no longer receptive to other signals.

Russia reacts and justifies the lack of gas and grain in Europe and the world with Western sanctions. How much is the idea of ​​a liberal world order, including sanctions for violations of international law, still worth?
Russia deliberately confuses cause and effect. As a value-based order, the liberal world order has only ever worked on one part of our globe. Now we are experiencing something new: a great power, which is also a permanent member of the UN Security Council, is breaking all ties to international law.

What does this mean for our social and economic system?
Above all in continental Europe, we need a new dose of realism in our foreign, security and economic policies. We hadn’t reached the end of history with the collapse of the Eastern Bloc. This European way of thinking was completely naïve.

Germany’s economy invests in China

China and Russia made it clear to the United Nations in 2016 that they reject sanctions as an instrument of international law.
Both states recently renewed this position. Russia and China want an international order in which the interior of states, human rights and the form of government are taboo. The ultimate goal of the Chinese leadership, for example, is not just any values. It is about the claim to leadership of the Communist Party and its legitimation by virtue of the “correctness” of the content. All other interests are subordinate to this and are only of importance if they are also useful in one’s own country.

China has similar interests in Taiwan as Russia has in Ukraine. What would it mean for the world economy if the West also intervened and imposed sanctions?
China is watching the Ukraine conflict very closely and is certainly unhappy about the development. Russia’s war of annihilation has led to an unexpected unity in the Western community of values, the EU has found a new capacity to act – and NATO, which was declared dead, is becoming powerful again. The Chinese leadership itself is far more economically vulnerable than the Kremlin regime. It lives from the desire for prosperity of the up-and-coming classes in China.

>> Read here: Don’t miss any development – everything new in our news blog about the Ukraine war

If this expectation is shattered, the success-related claim to leadership also falters. The tendency to force the conflict over Taiwan and in the South China Sea, which has flared up again, has been dampened by the Ukraine war – even if the West is currently under stress and Western European societies still seem ailing from constant self-discovery.

So it is not a problem that the German economy continues to invest in China at a record level?
Our industry is dependent on exports, but the trade surplus is with China. This shows that China is at least as dependent. We must finally say goodbye to self-dwarfing in political and economic terms. Large German automakers immediately flinch when there is a gesture of displeasure from China that tests our compliance. I’m sure: If you react calmly, nothing will happen. The mutual dependencies have a stabilizing effect and create rationality. We should see the relationship with China as an important partnership – but one shaped by the economy.

What do you mean by “economical”?
Dependent on common, often volatile interests. Climate protection, for example, moves in China’s economic scale of importance: sometimes up and then down again. Here we thought we had to help China. In the end, China used the technological gains to conquer markets itself. With our further investments, we will have to think more carefully about what dependencies we create and whether we can achieve our goals in the long term, such as limiting global warming. We must make our expectations clear when making investments and respond appropriately when we are disappointed. In terms of human rights and environmental protection, what price do we want to pay for cheap access to raw materials? If in doubt, we will also have to strategically change and diversify supply chains.

>> Read here: Federal government threatens Huawei with expulsion

Not all states follow western values

The question of dependencies is not only about raw materials, but also about products, such as telecommunications components from Huawei in the German and European network.
There are no truly autonomous companies in China as we know them. Even private companies are always open to requests from the Chinese government.

Other states think less critically.
We have to admit that large parts of Asia and Africa do not follow our values, but rather follow Russia or China. States have become dependent on China without China wanting to steer their systems in a specific direction. Such a thing has charm with autocrats. Here we ourselves must link development policy more closely with our foreign and security policy goals and invest far more.

To tie other states to us?
Many regimes do not think in terms of institutions or values. For her, relationships are key: “Russia has been our friend in the past, so we can’t vote against that country in the United Nations General Assembly just because it started a war against Ukraine.” These paradigms may shock us But they largely shape politics around the world.

>> Read here: the CDU says goodbye to Merkel’s China course

What is the value of a World Trade Organization (WTO)?
States like China, like us, have an interest in economic relations running on predictable and legally sound paths. China vehemently wanted to join the WTO and, as a rising power, cannot afford to stand outside of such systems. I assume that the WTO will retain its important role, with all its shortcomings in detail.

But aren’t regional free trade agreements the alternative?
Europe must react when large trading blocs emerge in the Pacific region. If they offer sufficiently large markets, then there is a greater opportunity to set new global standards. That is why we have the greatest interest in curbing America’s turn to the Pacific region and finally decisively advancing the transatlantic partnership with the USA.

New Russia?

But the government is already having a hard time accepting the Ceta free trade agreement with Canada.
The disputes over the agreement with Canada are a cause for concern for Europe. Hardly any other country is closer to us in all fundamental values ​​and internal order than Canada. How tough should the negotiations be with other countries? We must advance the transatlantic relationship through new agreements so that this axis remains relevant in the global economy.

This is how the Handelsblatt reports on the Ukraine war and the consequences:

Finally, the question: Do you have any idea how the Ukraine war could end?
I assume that it will remain a regionally limited conflict. If the West continues to consistently support Ukraine and oppose the appeasement chorus of fearful do-gooders, then the war could end before the end of this year.

As the?
Out of sheer exhaustion on both sides.

And then?
We can then have hope that a free Ukraine will be largely intact in terms of its territory.

With such a result, will the Russian regime be able to hold out?
We will probably see a new Russia in a few years. There will be no rapid implosion. But the awareness of being militarily and economically outclassed and isolated will have a lasting effect, especially among younger people. Once Russia has changed internally, we will welcome it back as an important strategic partner.

Professor Herdegen, thank you very much for the interview.

More: Turning point – from the rule of law to the law of the strongest.