The strategists do not trust the rapid increase

Frankfurt Moritz Kraemer begins his first market commentary this year with a quiz. “What unites good resolutions and forecasts?” asks the chief economist at Landesbank Baden-Württemberg (LBBW). His answer: “Both often don’t last long.”

In fact, economists and strategists have been wrong so far with regard to the stock market year 2023. Instead of the difficult start to the year that had been expected, there was a historic rally at the beginning of the year in Europe, which continued on Monday. Germany’s leading index, the Dax, gained a further 0.3 percent to 15,134 points at the beginning of the week. Trading was quiet with no market-moving economic data and no impetus from Wall Street, which did not trade on Martin Luther King Day.

In the first eleven trading days, however, the Dax has now gained an impressive 8.7 percent. Since the end of September, the increase has even totaled more than 25 percent. The situation is similar on many other European stock exchanges, and prices have also risen in the USA, albeit less dynamically than in Europe.