He would announce general mobilization or even officially declare war on Ukraine, putting an end to the tale of “special operations” that have now taken the form of a war of annihilation.
The warrior from the Kremlin delivered nothing of the sort. Instead, Putin fobbed off his compatriots and the world public with the usual lies and absurdities. That the West has planned an “invasion of Russia” or that everything is going according to plan in Ukraine thanks to the brave Russian troops.
The discrepancy between Western expectations on that day and reality shows once again that the West is strategically overwhelmed: it results from the vagueness of Putin’s war aim, from his imperial insatiability and, of course, from the force of the nuclear threat.
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Against a man who is willing to risk the fate of his own economy, who can manipulate public opinion in his country almost at will and who clearly has the dominance to escalate, only a patient, long-term strategy will help.
It was thought that Putin would announce general mobilization or even officially declare war on Ukraine, but the Kremlin chief delivered nothing of the kind in his speech.
(Photo: dpa)
The longing for peace in Germany is great and the demand for a ceasefire negotiations is understandable. The philosopher Jürgen Habermas expressed this in a brilliant essay.
Extradite Ukraine?
Only: What should be negotiated? Offer the aggressor a piece of Ukraine so that he can calm down, at least for a few months, maybe even years? Assure him of Ukraine’s neutrality, which ultimately means handing over the democratic country to the sphere of influence of Moscow’s arbitrary rule?
From Ukraine’s point of view, such scenarios must appear like a dictated peace. It is certainly not necessary to share all the views of the Ukrainian ambassador. But here Andriy Melnyk is right.
A negotiated peace that does not amount to a betrayal of Ukraine’s legitimate interests will probably only be conceivable when Russia is so conventionally weakened, militarily and economically, that it has little choice but to retreat.
Now Habermas and his comrades-in-arms always point out that a defeat of a nuclear power is difficult to imagine. This may be. It’s not impossible. In any case, the assertion that there has never been one is simply wrong. Look at the failure of the all-powerful USA in Vietnam or the Soviet Union in Afghanistan.
The West has made serious strategic mistakes towards Russia. Putin attacked Georgia in 2008, and oil and gas continued to flow west – even at a forced pace. Putin annexed Crimea in 2014 and started his little “unofficial” war in Donbass – and Germany could think of nothing better than to sign the contracts for Nord Stream 2 the following year.
Putin had Russian opposition figures murdered in Western capitals – and federal politicians invoked the concept of “change through trade”. Putin had maternity hospitals in Syria bombed – and Western intellectuals warned to finally stop unnecessary saber-rattling against Moscow.
The list could be continued almost indefinitely. Ultimately, the West also helped fund the hypersonic and tactical nuclear weapons that Putin is so proud of. No one should be surprised that the Russian dictator thinks the West is weak. Because all of this created the basis for Operation Revision of History, which Putin launched on March 24 in Ukraine.
The West’s aim is not victory over Russia. But the aim is certainly to resist Putin’s imperial fantasies – possibly until the Russians themselves get rid of a Putin.
There are only losers in this absurd war – the West is already paying its price in the form of economic effects and inflation rates that nobody would have thought possible a year ago.
However, the strategy of “restraint and caution” – somewhat disparagingly referred to as appeasement in the diplomatic world – failed miserably in the case of Putin. This strategy could increase the price of peace to unprecedented heights in the long term. From Putin’s point of view, a ceasefire of any kind could be a tactical one in order to gather strength again for his next attack in the large-scale project of historical revision.
More: Putin warns of another world war – and claims that the West is preparing an invasion