new York With less than three weeks to go before the US midterm elections, the campaign is picking up speed. On November 8th, all 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 35 of the 100 seats in the US Senate are up for re-election. The midterm election is also considered an important mood test for the government of US President Biden.
The outcome of the midterm elections could change the final two years of Biden’s presidency. The Democrats currently hold a razor-thin majority in the House of Representatives, with a tie in the Senate.
So the stakes are high for both parties and the country. A look at the immense expenditures made by political benefactors in the weeks leading up to the election also shows this. The candidates standing for election from both parties have so far been able to collect more than three billion dollars; the sum is already higher than that which came together at the midterms of 2018.
The Democrats. Overall, the Democrats’ income is about $100 million more than that of the Republicans. In the House of Representatives, however, the gap is significantly smaller than in the Senate.
Top jobs of the day
Find the best jobs now and
be notified by email.
Wayne Steger, professor of political science at DePaul University in Chicago, explains that the donation volume is breaking records this year, in particular due to the increasing polarization in the country. This year in particular, it is “a major concern for the Americans that their party wins”.
Which candidate has been able to collect the most money so far?
A Democrat. Raphael Warnock is running for Senate in Georgia and has raised more than $111 million to date. Warnock is well ahead of other Democrats running for a seat in the Senate and even further ahead of Republican top earner Timothy Scott, who is running in South Carolina.
The situation is different for the candidates for the House of Representatives. Here a Republican is ahead: Kevin McCarthy from California currently leads the Republican minority in the House of Representatives and has collected more than 25 million dollars so far.
Where do the donations come from?
In large part from the economy, but not only. Political Action Committees (PAC) collect money for a specific political cause. They then either faithfully donate to a party according to their goals and values, or invest according to the best odds. Voters also make small donations to their parties.
Individual donations have recently gained in importance. The Republicans and Democrats collect small donations from party fans via the online platforms WinRed and ActBlue.
Particularly striking: The Democrats were able to attract significantly more donors until shortly before the election, while the number of Republican benefactors has recently even decreased: The number of ActBlue participants rose by around 500,000 to 2.5 million in the first half of 2022 (compared to to the same half of the previous year). At WinRed, on the other hand, there was a drop of around 40,000 donors to just 913,000 during this period. This was the result of calculations by the US news portal Politico.
As far as the gender ratio is concerned, men donate more often than women. Women tend to support the Democrats more often than men.
Which industries are donating the most to the Midterms?
First and foremost the financial sector. Financial institutions, insurance companies and real estate groups have so far spent more than one billion dollars – around half of it went directly to the parties and their candidates, the rest to interest groups, so-called PACs. And who got the money? Both parties, but the Democrats have a razor-thin lead.
However, the US banks have withdrawn sharply. So far, they’ve given $7.4 million — a 43 percent drop from the 2020 election and about 39 percent below the average bank giving, Reuters reports.
The tech industry follows in fifth place. Particularly exciting: The tech companies gave the Democrats more than 70 percent of their donations.
Overall, Democrats are favored by most industries, particularly those that top the list. The oil industry, construction, transportation, agriculture, and the defense industry gave much of their money to Republicans.
Who has spent the most money so far and on what?
The Democrats have spent around $1.3 billion so far and the Republicans $1.2 billion. Overall, the midterm election could be the most expensive in US history. Open Secrets forecasts estimate that more than $9 billion could be spent.
In general, the parties are pursuing two main goals with their investments: Political scientist Steger explains that it is about convincing those who are undecided and mobilizing their own base. The latter is of particular importance. You have to motivate your own voters to actually cast their ballots. “That’s where most of the money goes,” says Steger.
The parties also spend their money on unconventional campaign methods. The Washington Post reported on Democratic money that benefited far-right Republicans in their primaries in some states. The calculus: An extremist is easier to beat in the big election in November than a moderate conservative.
Why are the Democrats ahead?
It is typical that incumbent parties collect more money. Companies try to expand their influence in this way. The donation behavior of the interest groups does not necessarily reflect their political views, Steger explains, but rather the calculation to buy influence.
Midterm elections are usually problematic for the incumbent president. The party that is currently the president often loses influence. In the case of the Democrats, there is also the fact that their majorities in Congress are only marginal. So a few votes in contested states like Georgia could decide the election.
The Republican candidate in the state of Georgia has raised less money than his Democratic competitor. Does he still have a chance?
(Photo: IMAGO/ZUMA Wire)
Does more money mean higher chances of winning?
Not necessarily. “Money in itself does not decide the result of the election,” Steger clarifies. In fact, incumbents who spend more money are statistically more likely to lose their seats. “A sign of their own vulnerability,” says the political scientist.
In the case of contested states like Georgia, this could be particularly exciting: While the incumbent for the Senate, Raphael Warnock, has collected record sums so far, his challenger Hershel Walker is far behind.
More: In the US election campaign, both parties compete to be the most critical of China. Republicans are also personally attacking the Biden family