Every week, Moritz Koch, head of the Handelsblatt office in Brussels, analyzes trends and conflicts, regulatory projects and strategic concepts from the inner workings of the EU. Because anyone interested in business needs to know what’s going on in Brussels. You can reach him at: [email protected]
Brussels “How did you go bankrupt?” says Ernest Hemingway. “In two ways,” comes the answer, “first slowly, then suddenly.” This dynamic can be observed in the USA right now, and it’s about much more than money: America is falling apart, politically and socially, first slowly, now suddenly .
Ironically, the Supreme Court, the highest court, drives the division of the country. The conservative majority, installed by ex-President Donald Trump, is not content with abolishing abortion rights; they are also reducing the powers of the Federal Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). In the fight against climate change, the government of Joe Biden, who took office as climate president, is left blank. The consequences are serious, also for the EU.
The great transatlantic unity that Americans and Europeans demonstrated last week in the G7 circle at Schloss Elmau and at the NATO summit in Madrid should prove to be a snapshot. Brussels diplomats get scared when they imagine America after the next presidential election.
The right-wing nationalist wing of the opposition Republicans is benefiting from the weakness of internationalist Biden, and Trump’s return to the White House cannot be ruled out. The shocks that Europe is facing, the energy crisis, the war in Ukraine, the pandemic, will become many times more severe when the other America comes back to power.
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Climate policy is likely to develop into one of the main points of contention. Biden, it can already be said, has failed in his plan to transform the USA into a leading nation in climate protection. His climate agenda was torn apart in the Senate, even the modest remainder has not passed. And the Supreme Court ruling has also blocked the way to administratively mandating ambitious emissions standards for the energy industry. In short, America is moving backwards while Europe is moving forward. This can not go well.
US society is falling apart
The international climate club, Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s pet project, is doomed to fail. “We need more ambition, more ambitions, to achieve our climate goals,” says Scholz. But his partner Biden, allegedly the most powerful man in the world, is shrinking into a lame duck. In the future, climate protection will be done in the states in the USA, according to the Supreme Court’s verdict: “Drill, baby, drill” in Texas and “Green New Deal” in New York.
American society is breaking up into parallel worlds, one arch-conservative, the other ultra-liberal. Whether she can stand it – no one knows. The country, at least that is clear, is facing what are probably the biggest internal problems since the civil war.
>>Read also: The fight for abortion in the US: women against women
Internationally, it is becoming lonely for the climate pioneer Europe. The EU will need to focus on protecting European industry from environmental dumping if it is to stick to its emissions targets. This can hardly succeed without climate tariffs: climate-neutral steel, for example, only has a chance on the market if the price advantage for polluters is offset.
The next trade war with the politically blocked states of America is already in sight. Under these conditions, will the US still be willing to remain Europe’s protecting power? If you consider the scenarios for the future of the transatlantic relationship, you can understand why EU diplomats are so concerned about America.
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