The future of free trade lies with Robert Habeck

In view of the shortage of materials in almost all areas of the economy, Jandura does not expect an improvement until the middle of next year. And something will also change in the long term. “I have no doubt that there will be increased storage at least in part,” said Jandura. That will mean higher costs and thus higher prices.

Read the whole interview here:

Mr. Jandura, the fear of the omicron variant is widespread. What danger does this pose for foreign trade?
The omicron variant of the coronavirus may pose a new threat. But we don’t know exactly yet. So I don’t believe in restricting travel, as is sometimes already done in Germany. It cannot be that governments around the world are trying to fix material shortages in the economy while at the same time preventing traders from traveling. After all, these are not pleasure trips.

And can it affect retail itself?
Absolutely, especially as long as the health risk from the virus remains uncertain. We have seen in the past how quickly it can have dramatic effects – especially in China. In the important port of Ningbo, for example, a single corona case led to a partial closure.

The problems in the supply chains that have persisted for months are a burden anyway. How long do you think it will stay that way?
I guess by the middle of next year. It cannot and will not work any faster. It is becoming increasingly clear that the pandemic is holding states at different times and with different levels of intensity. This creates a surging effect that international logistics cannot compensate overnight. The market takes time.

Was it a mistake in business in the past not to rely on warehousing and always to produce “on edge”?
In retrospect, that is certainly the case. However, I do not consider a complete reorientation of the economy to be the right thing to do. The prosperity that we have built arose primarily from efficient management. In any case, stocks that we would have needed to cushion a crisis like the corona pandemic would not have been realistic in many parts of the economy.

What will change now in this regard?
It is not yet clear. In my trading business, we ask ourselves whether we are currently serving a really high demand or whether the customers have started to hoard. But I have no doubt that there will be increased storage at least in part. That will also mean higher costs and thus higher prices.

The criticism of Germany’s dependence on exports has largely fallen silent in recent years. But is it not now showing that this model is obsolete?
No, right now the country needs its export economy like never before. Germany without foreign trade is like a forest without trees. Every fourth workstation depends on export. We can’t just stop there.

Will the export model not come to the test on its own in the coming years? China continues to decouple. Relations with the US are also still strained.
In part, we are facing deglobalization. The United States under Joe Biden is friendlier in tone than under Donald Trump, but no less tough on the matter. China has its own goals and ambitions. We are not going to get rid of international tensions anytime soon, and these are not good prerequisites for doing business with both sides. However, we cannot do without foreign trade – and therefore have to tackle these challenges.

As?
The new federal government must insist that the EU do more to strengthen free trade. Europe must speak with one voice. Germany alone cannot do anything with China or the USA.

With a view to the coalition agreement, do you have any hope that this will happen?
The commitment to free trade in the coalition agreement is a good sign. But making social and ethical standards a prerequisite for all trade agreements is not the right conclusion. We shouldn’t use the agreements to want to carry our values ​​everywhere. Trade agreements should be primarily about trade. I particularly hope that the new Minister for Economic Affairs and thus also Trade Minister Robert Habeck will be able to convince his Greens of this line. Sometimes the future of free trade lies with Habeck.

So you would sign the Mercosur Agreement with South America and let Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro continue to burn down the rainforest?
Of course, sustainability is an important issue and it makes me sad what is happening in Brazil. The Mercosur Agreement would create a basis for the implementation of environmental and social standards there for the first time. But we also have to be realistic: we cannot simply kill all the problems in other countries with trade agreements. It’s about trade, and everything else has to be resolved by the government in other ways. Incidentally, once trade relations have solidified, this can also lead to better conditions in the partner country.

The economy christened this credo “Change through trade” years ago. But doesn’t the example of China have long shown that this is out of date? We deal a lot with China, and that hasn’t changed anything about the disregard for human rights there.
I do not think so. This change simply takes a tremendous amount of time. And with China, we always only look at the governance. The change takes place there in people’s heads. It’s not a question of years, but of decades. And the more we deal with each other, the lower the risk of a conflict.

In the coalition agreement, the traffic light also states that talks with the USA on free trade should be sought again. Do you think a new version of the TTIP free trade agreement is realistic?
It would be extremely important to resume talks – albeit under a different name, TTIP has been burned as a term. The wording in the coalition agreement on this is very vague.

What do you need to consider when the plans become more specific?
The area regulated by a free trade agreement between Europe and the USA would have to be significantly reduced. Last time those responsible tried to get too many controversial issues under one roof. TTIP failed because of this breadth. Now the motto should be: Less is more.

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