So it is with the transatlantic relationship

But at the same time there is growing concern that the thirst for action could soon be slowed down again. US President Joe Biden is threatened with a political blockade in the coming year if his Democrats lose a majority in Congress. “Now or never, we are running out of time for cooperation,” says the spokesman for a German industry association.

The scenario, which Biden could only hold out for one term in the Oval Office, is being discussed more and more on both sides of the Atlantic. Little is left of the euphoria shortly after the change of government. In the exchange, you tend to feel skepticism as to whether the productive phase will last for a long time.

An old conflict could flare up again in December if the US Congress wants to impose sanctions on the controversial Nord Stream 2 pipeline. “If new sanctions actually come, that would be a fatal signal,” says a German business representative.

Nordstream 2 agreement leaves room for interpretation

Washington had actually given the federal government some breathing space. In the summer, the President decided, in alliance with Angela Merkel, to suspend sanctions against Germany in connection with Nord Stream 2.

The compromise reflected the pragmatism of the Biden government: with the pipeline largely complete, the president preferred to repair relations with Germany.

However, the agreement between the US and Germany left a lot of room for interpretation. Among other things, it means that Russia must fear “consequences” if it uses energy as a means of extortion – but when is this limit exceeded? And what consequences does Germany draw in the “worst case”? That is not clearly defined. Amos Hochstein, the US commissioner for global energy security, accused Russia of getting “very close to this line” in a television interview. A view that is rather less shared in Berlin.

So far, the White House is still trying to exert pressure without snubbering its German partners. But the warnings in the direction of Berlin are unmistakable:

Should Russia attempt to use energy as a weapon or commit further aggressive acts against Ukraine, we and Germany are obliged to take appropriate measures. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken

The coming weeks will be decisive for whether the billion-dollar project still has a future – for several reasons:

• Risk number 1: Biden is under pressure to act. The dispute over the Baltic Sea pipeline is escalating in the US Congress. The Republicans blocked the defense budget for the coming year on Monday because they want to force new sanctions into the law. US President Joe Biden should then no longer have the opportunity to lift such sanctions. The Democrats need the Republicans in the Senate so that the defense budget can be decided – and there are also many opponents of the pipeline in the ranks of Biden’s own party. For Biden this means that the transatlantic relationship will soon no longer be able to protect to the extent that he would like it to be.
• Risk number 2: Germany’s new government. The outgoing federal government warns the Congress of new sanctions – these would jeopardize “transatlantic unity”, according to a confidential paper that German government representatives handed over to their American interlocutors. The new government is a source of uncertainty. The future traffic light coalition is divided on the Nord Stream 2 issue. The issue is not mentioned in the coalition agreement because the parties were unable to resolve their differences. The FDP and the Greens are critical of the pipeline.
• Risk number 3: The tense security situation. The energy crisis in Europe and the growing Russian military presence on the border with Ukraine have alarmed the US. “The scenario we have always warned about has occurred,” says an American diplomat. Washington takes developments on the Ukrainian border very seriously and fears that Russia could invade the neighboring country as early as January. Each escalation of the conflict makes a blockade on Nord Stream 2 more likely.

Biden is currently under pressure on all fronts to change its conciliatory stance towards Germany and Nord Stream 2. “The USA is threatened with a geopolitical catastrophe if Nord Stream 2 goes online,” says Republican Ted Cruz. The Texan senator blocked the confirmation of dozen of ambassador IDs in Congress in protest of Biden’s course. Among other things, he stops the dispatch of the designated US ambassador to Germany, Amy Gutmann.

This isn’t the only drama on Capitol Hill. This winter could redefine the transatlantic partnership – and also the direction of Biden’s presidency. In November he celebrated a success with his 1.2 trillion infrastructure reform.

Biden’s biggest project has not yet been decided

But the greater part of his economic agenda, a billion dollar package for social programs and climate protection, has not yet been decided because the Democrats cannot get their wing struggles under control. In addition, Congress must avert the threat of national bankruptcy and a government shutdown by Christmas.

Washington cannot calm down, and Biden’s support also suffers in turbulent times. At the end of his first year in office, his message of new beginnings and new beginnings seems to have been burned up. The Afghanistan withdrawal, the delta wave and the refugee crisis on the border with Mexico gave critics a boost, while inflation, shortages of goods and soaring gasoline prices have raked Biden’s approval ratings.

“People are frustrated,” says Democratic strategist Zac McCrary, “and it has taken the White House a while to keep up with the mood in the country.” Even if the economic situation eases, an impression is difficult to iron out: Biden and his party are perceived as “out of touch”, unrealistic.

There are initial signs that the situation with supply chains and expensive prices could improve. But the Democrats are fighting against time, less than a year before the important mid-term elections. The Omikron variant, which could also be detected in the USA at any time, threatens new uncertainty. I’ve been with Biden in Washington for the past few weeks. You can read the close-up of a disenchanted president here. Biden’s Vice President Kamala Harris is also coming under increasing pressure, she is no longer considered to be the appointed successor.

More: Completion of Nord Stream 2: Administrative assistance for Gazprom outraged the USA.