Berlin Olaf Scholz struggled for a long time. First it was the Chancellor’s anger at the fact that Federal President Frank-Walter Steinmeier was uninvited by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, which stood in the way of a visit to Kyiv. Then it was Scholz’ pronounced aversion to symbolic politics. He didn’t want to meet Selenski for a “brief in and out with a photo shoot,” he announced, but only when there were “concrete things” to discuss.
Now, according to the Chancellor, the time has probably come. His first trip to Kiev seems imminent. Apparently this week, probably on Thursday, Scholz wants to arrive in the Ukrainian capital together with French President Emmanuel Macron and Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi. The visit is likely to have one main theme: Ukraine’s desire to become a member of the EU.
It is one of the most important issues that Europeans have to deal with at the moment. Is Ukraine’s candidacy for membership overdue or hasty? Does the EU have to send a signal that Ukraine belongs to Europe? Or does it threaten to overextend itself if it binds a country at war?
For Ukrainians, the European perspective is no longer a long-term project. It is the immediate goal of their struggle for self-assertion, a central criterion for defeating the Russian aggressors. Zelenski expects his country to be granted candidate status – quickly, without any ifs or buts. This is “not just a decision for Ukraine, but for the entire European project,” he says.
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But the EU is divided on the K question. The controversy threatens to overshadow the EU summit due to take place in Brussels next week. During the preparations for the meeting of the EU leaders in the Committee of Permanent Representatives, the most important steering body of the EU, the gap between the member states became clear. This is shown by the notes of the conversation that are available to the Handelsblatt.
>> Also read: The possible express accession for Ukraine is dividing Europe
The ambassadors of Poland, Lithuania, Estonia, Latvia and Ireland demanded that “the European Council adopts a clear, unambiguous result and grants Ukraine candidate status,” it said. Germany expressed itself more cautiously and described a “candidate under conditions” as a possible result. Denmark was more skeptical, arguing that “war itself should not be a factor”. The “usual” procedure should be followed.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is pushing for EU membership.
(Photo: IMAGO/Future Image)
Should the EU not succeed in finding a unified position by the start of the summit on June 23, it would reveal its division for the second time in a few weeks. The informal summit at the end of May was burdened by the “stranglehold” (Germany’s Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck) over the oil embargo against Russia.
The stakes are high. The Russians would exploit Europe’s disunity, while the Ukrainians’ morale would suffer. The EU states are aware of their dilemma. This is one of the reasons why some capitals are angry that the head of the EU Commission ‧Ursula von der Leyen pushed the accession discussion at an early stage. Shortly after the war began, von der Leyen made it clear that Ukraine “belongs to us” and that “we want it to be in the European Union”. When filling out the accession documents, the Ukrainians received active support from experts of the commission.
Brussels has thus raised high expectations in Kyiv. Von der Leyen traveled to Ukraine at short notice last weekend. She paid tribute to the “enormous efforts and determination” of the Ukrainians on their way to the EU. The Commission intends to present its recommendation by Friday. Everything indicates that the EU authority will be in favor of granting Ukraine candidate status – on condition that the country makes further progress with reforms, for example in the fight against corruption.
France and Germany are similarly reserved in the debate
Candidate status is not only important politically, but also economically, and that is also factored into von der Leyen’s calculations. In the future, many investors will make their involvement in Ukraine dependent on how closely the country is linked to the EU.
However, the final decision on the K question does not lie with the Commission, but with the Member States. The trip to Kiev by the Scholz-Macron-Draghi troika is therefore eagerly awaited. France is just as reserved as Germany in the debate about EU membership. Macron’s environment has repeatedly emphasized that Ukraine is a “country in the heart of Europe” whose pro-European orientation must be supported. However, the EU should not make any promises that it cannot keep.
Paris sees full EU membership as a long-term project, thinking in terms of decades rather than years. The French do not want to make any compromises when it comes to the strict accession criteria. They also fear that the tough decision-making processes in the EU could become even more difficult after new rounds of enlargement.
Instead, Macron proposed a European political community that would give Ukraine and other states in the EU’s neighborhood a perspective. In addition to security issues, the expanded group of states could work together on energy policy or entry rules. Scholz called the proposal “very interesting”.
>> Also read: “The situation is slipping”: only heavy weapons can stop Russia in the Donbass
In Ukraine, the concept met with sharp rejection. Draghi is more open to Zelenski’s unconditional desire to join. The Italian was one of the first Western politicians to publicly back Ukraine’s EU ambitions. “Italy wants Ukraine in the European Union,” Draghi declared at the end of March when Selenski was on the Italian parliament.
Unequivocal support for Ukrainians’ EU hopes comes from the European Parliament. “The accession candidate status for Ukraine would now be an important political signal,” says David McAllister (CDU), Chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee. “It’s about showing Ukraine a perspective after the war. This perspective can only be European.”
The Greens take a similar view: “It is politically correct to give Ukraine candidate status,” says foreign policy expert Viola von Cramon. At the same time, however, she points out that the EU must not forget other countries. The decision “must be embedded in an expansion strategy that also takes the Western Balkans into account,” von Cramon demands.
Chancellor Scholz shares this view. Just a few days ago he was traveling in the Balkans. “For almost 20 years, the states of the Western Balkans have been promised a European perspective,” he said there. “It is time that this promise was followed by deeds.” The Balkans are of “strategic importance” for Germany. The Ukrainians are now hoping for a similarly clear statement from the chancellor. For Scholz, it should also be about repairing the broken relationship with Selenski. Ukraine has been complaining about Germany for weeks
restraint in arms deliveries. Scholz “and his government must decide” whether they “support Ukraine,” warns Selenski. The fact that the Federal President reacted to the criticism from Kyiv shows how explosive the visit to Kiev is likely to be. Steinmeier advised waiting for the visit. “Then in a direct conversation you might be able to come to a slightly different point of view in Ukraine as well.”
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