Good morning, dear readers,
the readers of the Handelsblatt Morning Briefing had been warned since Friday: it became apparent that the parliamentary elections in Finland would not be a sure-fire success for Prime Minister Sanna Marin, who is so popular abroad.
This forecast was confirmed on yesterday’s election evening. After almost all the votes were counted, the liberal-conservative “National Coalition Party” declared itself the winner. She was ahead last night with 20.8 percent. The right-wing populist party “The Finns” came in at 20.1 percent, the governing Social Democrats of Prime Minister Sanna Marin landed in third place with 19.9 percent.
Marin admitted her electoral defeat. However, none of the three major parties can govern alone. Coalition Party lead candidate Petteri Orpo told supporters of his party: “Based on this result, talks will be initiated on the formation of a new government led by the National Coalition Party.”
Judging by this slightly under-euphoric quote from the election winner, there must be something to the prejudice that the Finn is not necessarily prone to emotional outbursts. Further
Sunday election results:
(Photo: Bloomberg)
In Berlin, too, a politician is about to leave the front row of power: A good three weeks after the start of their coalition negotiations, the CDU and SPD have completed their planned government program in Berlin.
Both parties also reached an agreement on the allocation of departments on Sunday evening. The CDU will therefore provide Kai Wegner as the governing mayor in the future. Incumbent Franziska Giffey is stepping down to the second row and is expected to take over one of the five senator posts that are to fall to the SPD: interior, housing and construction, labor and social affairs, business, and health and science.
Is it the harbinger of a new financial crisis? Or just inevitable adjustment pains because after an exceptional decade of cheap money, interest rates are rising again to normal levels? One thing is certain: Across the continent, more and more property owners are getting into trouble.
In Sweden, four percent of all owners can no longer service their loans. The head of Sweden’s Financial Supervisory Authority, Daniel Barr, speaks of “unprecedented financial pressure on households”. A rising default rate on real estate loans puts pressure on house prices and would have an impact on the banking sector – real estate loans are an important business for institutions.
According to the real estate agent McMakler, the prices for residential real estate in Germany fell by 6.2 percent in the first quarter compared to the previous year. Patrik-Ludwig Hantzsch from the credit agency Creditreform predicts that more apartments or houses will also be foreclosed on in this country in the medium term: “The significantly higher interest burden for follow-up loans will particularly affect consumers who calculated tightly when taking out a loan in a low-interest phase. And there are quite a few.”
However: Due to a special feature, real estate buyers in Germany are comparatively well protected against rising interest rates. The proportion of mortgage loans with a variable interest rate – specifically with a fixed interest rate of less than one year – is comparatively low in Germany. If you don’t have to refinance or sell right now, you can sit out rising interest rates and falling real estate prices.
Saudi Arabia and several other major oil producers surprisingly announced on Sunday that they would cut their oil production by a total of 1.15 million barrels a day.
The move is expected to apply from May through the end of the year and could push oil prices higher around the world. Higher oil prices would also make it easier for Russian President Vladimir Putin to finance the war against Ukraine.
What would cabaret artist Dieter Hildebrandt, who died in 2013, have said about the Ukraine war and the dispute over Russian oil? I’m not even sure I want to know. I find political cabaret to be a difficult genre: the jokes with the same ingredients (money rules the world, politicians are unprincipled, those on the left are right) often seem old-fashioned and sour to me. But of course I also found it a pity that Hildebrandt’s home stage, the Munich laughing and shooting society, recently had to file for bankruptcy.
Now a newly founded association, chaired by former Munich mayor Christian Ude (SPD), wants to save the laughing and shooting society. The association “Die Laden-Hüter” was founded last Friday and now wants to find sponsors, said Ude on Sunday.
I’ve had the pleasure of hearing Ude speak at public appearances a number of times, and I can assure you: the man is funnier than any cabaret artist. If he’s serious about the rescue, Ude should put himself on the laugh and shoot party stage.
I wish you a day when it’s not all up to you again.
Best regards
Your Christian Rickens
Editor-in-Chief Handelsblatt
PS: As soon as the current version of ChatGPT was released on November 30th, the program triggered a debate about artificial intelligence (AI). One thing is certain: AI applications will radically change the world of work – especially knowledge professions.
But that’s not the only impact: On April 3rd, the Handelsblatt Livestream from Investment Live will be about the consequences of AI for financial markets and investments. Starting at 5:30 p.m., Deutsche Bank’s chief investment strategist, Ulrich Stephan, and AI expert Vanessa Just will talk about this topic. Register now for free and send us your questions about investments and artificial intelligence: www.handelsblatt.com/investmentlive.
