Riga Ukrainian authorities have been warning of the scenario for months – now the Kachowka dam in southern Ukraine has actually been destroyed. The city of Nowa Kakhovka, which is located directly on the dam, is under water, according to the Russian news agency Tass, according to the Russian mayor Vladimir Leontiev. The area in the Kherson region is partially controlled by Russian troops.
According to Ukrainian information, around 80 settlements are in the flooded area. Around 600 houses were already flooded at noon as a result of the break, as rescue services told the Russian news agency Tass. According to TASS information, the dam has been destroyed over half its length and is continuing to collapse. According to Russian information, around 22,000 people are at risk of flooding.
Authorities and politicians in Ukraine and abroad are warning of massive short- and long-term consequences for residents, civil infrastructure, and wildlife in the region.
According to sources in Kiev, they want to stick to their plans for a counter-offensive. For months it has been expected that the Russian occupiers will be pushed back by the Ukrainian armed forces. Allied western states have armed the country.
Against this background, too, Ukraine accuses Russia of deliberately blowing up the dam built in the 1950s. President Volodymyr Zelensky convened the National Security Council on Tuesday morning and wrote to the Telegram news service that the destruction confirmed that “Russian terrorists” must be expelled from every corner of Ukrainian soil. Only Ukraine’s victory can bring security back.
According to Zelenski, Russian troops blew up the dam from the inside, the blast was carried out at 2:50 a.m. on Tuesday night, according to the president.
Kachowka Dam: Scholz describes the destruction as a “new dimension” in the Ukraine war
Presidential adviser Michailo Podoliak wrote on Twitter that Russia blew up the hydroelectric power station, causing “the biggest environmental disaster in Europe in decades”. Podoljak described the process as a terrorist attack, and many settlements would disappear from the map as a result. Ukraine called for an emergency UN Security Council meeting – and more sanctions against Russia. Russia also wants to convene such a meeting, as the Russian news agency RIA reported with reference to a Russian envoy.
The Russian occupation authorities, on the other hand, cited a shelling by the Ukrainian army as the reason for the destruction of the dam and power plant. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov also blamed Ukraine. The information provided by both sides could not initially be checked independently.
But there is also a third plausible possibility: an accident. The American journalist Geoff Brumfiel assumes that the Russian occupiers did not properly handle the water masses caused by the snowmelt.
As evidence, he cites, among other things, satellite images that show how the road on the dam was already washed away in early June. Two days before the dam broke, the level of the Kachowka reservoir was at a historic high. The crossing and the power plant were probably already damaged in the fighting around Cherson last autumn.
Dam rupture: Scholz speaks of a “new dimension” in the war
Many foreign heads of state and government have meanwhile condemned the destruction, with Chancellor Olaf Scholz describing it as a “new dimension” in the war. Scholz said that Ukraine would be supported for as long as it was necessary.
European Council President Charles Michel wrote that the destruction of civilian infrastructure “clearly counts as a war crime – and we will hold Russia and its proxies accountable”.
According to NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, the destruction of the dam would endanger thousands of civilians and cause serious environmental damage. “This is an outrageous act that once again shows the brutality of the Russian war in Ukraine.”
Russian act of sabotage to slow down Ukraine counter-offensive?
The destruction is also likely to have an impact on the further course of the war, especially against the background of the long-awaited counter-offensive by the Ukrainian side, for which there have been increasing signs over the past few days.
Soviet-born British historian Sergey Radchenko of the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies calls Kiev’s view more credible in this context than the “usual denials” from Russia. For one thing, Ukraine warned last October that Russia had mined the dam, Radchenko said. On the other hand, the Russians would make it difficult for the Ukrainian army to cross the river downstream from Nowa Kakhovka and thus gain time.
According to Tass, the water level behind the dam has already risen by ten meters.
(Photo: IMAGO/ITAR-TASS)
According to the US think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW) on Tuesday, the Ukrainian army is currently continuing its ground attacks in the West Donetsk and East Zaporizhia regions, so on Monday they made “limited tactical progress”. In southern Ukraine, Ukrainian forces continued to target Russian rear positions. As of Monday, both Moscow and Kyiv have reported widespread fighting along the front lines, amid growing expectations that Kyiv’s planned counter-offensive is now actually beginning.
There is speculation that the incident around the dam could be an act of Russian sabotage aimed at slowing down the Ukrainian counter-offensive. According to the spokeswoman for Ukraine’s Southern Military Command, Natalia Humeniuk, the Russian army blew up the dam to prevent Ukrainian forces from crossing the Dnipro River.
It was clear to the Russian troops that the Ukrainian defense forces would move. “In this way, they tried to influence the defense forces so that the crossing of the Dnipro they feared would not take place.”
This is how the Handelsblatt reports on the Ukraine war:
Military strategist Toms Rostoks does see implications for Ukraine’s possible counteroffensive: Assuming Russian forces blew the dam, that would secure their left flank “for a while,” Rostoks said. It will now take several days for the reservoir to drain and the areas downstream to be flooded, making it impossible for Ukrainian forces to conduct an “amphibious operation” if they are preparing for one.
The Ukrainian military had previously announced that the destruction would not prevent the planned counter-offensive. The military is equipped with all the necessary equipment to overcome water obstacles. “Although Russia faces a shortage of qualified troops and formations, it probably wants to reduce the number of directions from which Ukraine can attack,” says Rostoks.
Security expert Carlo Masala also said Russia was trying to slow down a Ukrainian counter-offensive that had already begun. A river crossing is the most difficult operation ever for armed forces, according to the professor at the Bundeswehr University in Munich. With rising water and flooding of both banks of the river, Ukrainian offensive operations in that place would become practically impossible.
The destruction could lead to Ukraine adjusting its plans, Presidential Advisor Podoljak said on Tuesday morning. However, Kiev’s desire to liberate the occupied areas of the country only strengthened them. In a TV show, Podoljak said: “For us, not going on an offensive is not an option.”
Collaboration: Ivo Mijnssen
More: You can find the latest developments in our news blog on the Ukraine war