New York, Brussels, Berlin The US midterm elections could also leave their mark on foreign policy. In any case, it would be difficult for US President Joe Biden to continue his foreign policy as before, should the Republicans ultimately win a narrow majority in one or both chambers of Congress.
They could soon put the brakes on Ukraine policy in particular: So far, the USA, with 52 billion euros, has been by far the biggest supporter of the Ukrainians in the war against the aggressor Russia. For comparison: The European countries and EU institutions together come to just under 29 billion euros. But that could perhaps change in the coming months.
In the run-up to the elections, several Republicans had questioned the previous generous support for Ukraine. The Republican leader of the House of Representatives, Kevin McCarthy, had threatened during the election campaign: “We will not issue a blank check to Ukraine.” He could block military and humanitarian aid to Ukraine if he were elected speaker of the chamber.
Georgia Republican Marjorie Taylor Greene even promised: “Among the Republicans, not a single penny will go to Ukraine.” The ultra-right politician was re-elected on Tuesday. Even if it probably won’t come to that, the voices of those calling for at least a reduction in American aid to Ukraine are growing.
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Just a few months ago, the Republicans in Congress, of all people, had urged US President Biden to expand aid to Ukraine — McCarthy himself was one of the loudest advocates. But since then the situation has changed. Support for Ukraine is also no longer as strongly desired among Republican voters as it was at the beginning of the war.
In a recent poll by the Wall Street Journal, 30 percent of all Americans polled say the Biden government is too committed to Ukraine. In March it was still six percent. The billions in aid are particularly unpopular with Republican voters: 48 percent find them excessive. Among the Democrats it is only six percent.
The US President faces challenges in his foreign policy.
(Photo: AP)
The former German Foreign Minister and Vice-Chancellor Sigmar Gabriel, now head of the Atlantic Bridge, warned in the Handelsblatt podcast interview before the election: McCarthy’s threat to reduce aid to Ukraine would mean, “Conversely, we Europeans would suddenly be alone with this conflict “. Should McCarthy get a majority for his policy, Biden would be unable to act. That would “certainly please Putin, but not us Europeans,” Gabriel clarified.
Sigmar Gabriel on American foreign policy and its consequences for Europe:
Jeffrey Rathke, a former US diplomat and head of the American Institute for Contemporary German Studies at Johns Hopkins University in Washington, also believes that Europeans will have to adjust to the fact that in the future there will be more critical questions as to why they don’t do more in Ukraine. Rathke also emphasizes that Biden, as US President, still has many powers in foreign policy.
Hardly any change in China policy to be expected
In addition, Biden has the opportunity to increase budgets for Ukraine aid before the end of the year and thus before the new occupation in the house and thus make financial provisions. In addition, it is not yet certain that the Republicans will actually prevent the aid. “There is a whole range of domestic political issues that would have more resonance,” says Rathke.
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Little change is to be expected in China policy. After all, both parties are concerned with containing China’s power. Biden has not reversed his predecessor Donald Trump’s tariffs.
>> Read here: Trade dispute between the EU and the USA before escalation: Paris calls for a tough reaction
Instead, Washington recently severely restricted exports of semiconductors and manufacturing machinery to China, causing serious problems for some Chinese companies. The promotion of battery production for electric cars in the country, which is controversial in Europe, is also about reducing dependence on China.
In Europe, the effects of the Midterms on US foreign policy are generally viewed calmly, but calls for closer transatlantic cooperation. “The predicted heavy electoral defeat of the Democrats does not materialize,” said MEP David McAllister (EPP Group), who chairs the Foreign Affairs Committee.
The United States has so far supported Ukraine heavily with arms deliveries.
(Photo: AP)
Nevertheless, it is to be expected that Biden will have to fight for majorities in domestic politics in the future if there is a Republican majority in the House of Representatives. “This could shift Biden’s focus to foreign policy,” McAllister said. The consequences for Europe should not be underestimated, especially with regard to Biden’s tougher approach to China and a geopolitical orientation towards the Indo-Pacific.
Economy hope for cooperation
The German economy called for more cooperation between the USA and Europe. “After the congressional elections, both sides must continue to work hard on transatlantic economic relations,” said BDI President Siegfried Russwurm. He called for the advances and convergences of the past two years to be preserved and expanded. Under no circumstances should the influence of isolationist voices increase.
“The expectation was that there would be a Republican wave for Trump,” said CDU foreign politician Norbert Röttgen. This wave failed to materialize. Reinhard Bütikofer, transatlantic spokesman for the Greens/EFA group in the European Parliament, was also relieved. But even if Trump’s return as US President has now become somewhat less likely, the EU must be prepared for further shifts in relations with the USA.
More: Long-term election campaigns and blockades in the USA are not good news for Europe