Republican sanctions bill on Nord Stream 2 fails in US Senate

A bill by Cruz made it (here the draft in the original), who wanted to enforce immediate sanctions against the billion-euro project, ultimately not through the powerful Congress Chamber. Instead, most Democrats are rallying around a toned-down draft by Senator Bob Menendez. This would only sanction Russia in the specific case of an invasion of the neighboring country. A vote on Menendez’ initiative is expected in the coming days (here the proposal in the original).

With the result of the vote, the Senate is sending a clear signal against Nord Stream 2: 55 out of 100 senators voted for Cruz’s radical move, including five Democrats. A majority would have required 60 votes.

The German traffic light coalition is thus getting the signal that it will not get rid of its resistance to Nord Stream 2. And US President Joe Biden is under pressure to get the Germans to rethink.

In the summer, Biden suspended planned sanctions against the operating company Nord Stream 2 AG, a subsidiary of the Russian group Gazprom, and its German CEO Matthias Warning. But the demonstration of power on the Ukrainian border and the energy crisis in Europe have made Washington more doubtful than ever about a gas pipeline that would give Vladimir Putin even more influence.

The dispute goes to the next round

The fact that Cruz’s sanctions are off the table for the time being gives at least some leeway: Democrat Menendez also wants far-reaching sanctions, but only in the event of a Russian invasion of Ukraine. The penalties are aimed at Nord Stream 2, Russian banks and senior Russian military and government officials, including Putin.

According to the draft, the pipeline is a “tool of evil” and the US government would have to “consider all available and appropriate measures” so that the gas pipeline would never go into operation. The White House supports the Democrats’ move.

The new proposed legislation falls into a sensitive phase in transatlantic relations. Actually, the Biden government does not want to snub Germany right now in order to maintain the “united front against Russia”, emphasized the US State Department. “We must be closely united with our European partners, including Germany,” the White House National Security Council said in a statement.

But the US government expects significantly more initiative from the Germans in the future to put Russia in its place, as has become apparent in recent months. Recently, the tone from Washington changed.

Foreign Minister Antony Blinken demanded that Berlin openly threaten to stop the pipeline in order to put pressure on Putin. “If Russia continues its aggression against Ukraine, it is very difficult to imagine that gas will flow through the pipeline,” stressed Blinken during the inaugural visit of his counterpart Annalena Baerbock in Washington.

Berlin sends conflicting signals – and frustrates Washington

Blinken thus formulated an exit scenario for the billion-euro project – while the German federal government is still struggling to come up with a unified line. During Baerbock’s trip to the USA, the differences in the traffic light coalition became obvious.

The Greens reject the pipeline, not only because of climate policy concerns, but also because of the strong transatlantic orientation of their Realpolitik wing. The FDP has also spoken out against commissioning Nord Stream 2.

But Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s SPD is one of the biggest supporters of the project. The Social Democratic Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht even warned against “dragging” the pipeline into the Ukraine conflict – a statement that was repeatedly criticized by senators in their speeches on Thursday.

SPD General Secretary Kevin Kühnert had previously called for an end to the discussions about Nord Stream 2: “We have to put the fundamental political conflict about it behind us,” he said.

Statements like these cause trouble in the US Congress. “Nobody on Capitol Hill believes that Germany will voluntarily shut down the pipeline and never let it operate, there are no signs of that,” a senior foreign affairs committee official told Handelsblatt. The narrative that prevails in Congress is this: no matter how much Russia provokes and escalates, Germany will hold on to Nord Stream 2 at all costs.

In fact, the line, which was completed in September, still needs approval from the Federal Network Agency. The Bonn authority suspended its proceedings in November because Nord Stream 2 AG has not yet been organized under German law. The Gazprom subsidiary is based in Zug, Switzerland, and now has to set up a German branch. This does not represent a particularly high hurdle for commissioning.

Until a decision is made, the Chancellor is trying to continue the course of his predecessor, Angela Merkel. And this can best be described as “strategic ambiguity”: Scholz deliberately leaves open what consequences Russia must expect in the event of an attack on Ukraine. “However, this strategic ambiguity only works if the government sticks to its message,” warns foreign policy expert Ulrich Speck. From the ranks of the SPD, on the other hand, there was a cacophony.

The chancellor is also sending conflicting signals. On the one hand, he threatens “massive consequences” of Russian aggression. On the other hand, in December he described Nord Stream 2 as a “private-sector project” that “an authority in Germany, the Federal Network Agency, had to decide on completely apolitically”.

The EU can still block the pipeline

The situation is complicated by the fact that Nord Stream 2 is also encountering great resistance in Brussels. The EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell made it clear on Thursday: “Of course” the commissioning of the pipeline “will also depend on the development of events in Ukraine and the attitude of Russia.” Borrell is in direct contradiction to Defense Minister Lambrecht.

The EU Commission also has a say in the certification process. As soon as the Federal Network Agency has made its decision, it is the Brussels authority’s turn. The Commission has a maximum of four months to assess whether Nord Stream 2 is compatible with European energy law. This evaluation must then be “completely” taken into account by the Federal Network Agency, as a Commission spokesman emphasizes.

The Russian company Gazprom could face further trouble from Brussels in the form of antitrust proceedings. Gazprom would have the ability to send more natural gas to Europe without Nord Stream 2, but it doesn’t. The result is that storage levels in the EU are so low that there are concerns about a supply shortage. In October, Poland called on the EU Commission to initiate antitrust proceedings.

In the USA, every step from Germany is now being closely monitored. The US government sees the forced break by the Federal Network Agency as proof that Berlin is willing to make concessions. The federal government has “again committed to stopping Nord Stream 2 if Russia attacks Ukraine,” said top US diplomat Victoria Nuland a few days ago. So far there is no evidence that the Federal Network Agency followed an instruction from Berlin.

The transatlantic agreement from the summer also leaves a lot of room for interpretation. Among other things, it states that Russia must fear “consequences” if it uses energy as a weapon or commits “further aggressive actions against Ukraine”. Nord Stream 2 is explicitly mentioned as a means of exerting pressure. In practice, however, it is unclear whether Germany would really stop the project.

Republican Cruz is already threatening a new move. “We must finally and forever put an end to this pipeline,” he raged in the Senate. Congress will try again to impose sanctions. That stance is shared by some on Capitol Hill. The high-ranking employee of the foreign affairs committee spoke of an “enough-is-enough mood”. The situation has reached a point “where Nord Stream 2 is just unpopular”.

More: Pros & Cons – Should Berlin use Nord Stream 2 to increase the pressure on Moscow?