Prominent Bitcoin analyst Rekt Capital discussed BTC’s current situation compared to its future potential. Drawing attention to the “Pi Cycle” moving averages, the analyst stated that he detected an ‘oscillation’ around such averages before the halving. However, during the halving year, more significant retests of the moving average often occur, leading to new all-time highs.
Rekt Capital shared possible scenarios before the halving, which is expected to occur in April 2024. An important detail identified by the analyst is that if BTC rises in the moving average, there is generally a strong rejection. However, a similar retry could result in a more moderate rejection, marking the beginning of a possible rise.
Rekt Capital drew attention with a detail that also identified important levels for potential retests. On the downside, a retest of the $31,000 level would be in line with historical support levels. Conversely, the $55,000 level constitutes a significant resistance point. However, given the existence of a 4-year cycle resistance near $48,000, it seems unlikely that this level will be reached within the year.
The analyst highlighted the sensitivity of the Pi cycle moving averages, especially the 111-day moving average, which is currently showing rapid reactions to recent price movements. These sensitive indicators point to a potential bearish crossover around December 2024. However, market corrections can significantly affect the trajectory of these moving averages and introduce volatility that can change the expected date for a downtrend.
Rekt Capital expressed doubts about the December 2024 peak for the bull market. Instead, he suggested the possibility of a longer-lasting bull market extending into 2025. This extension may include multiple transitions influenced by market dynamics, corrections and evolving trends.