President Zelensky must now wage war. can he do that

Vienna In the early hours of the morning, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy addressed the population and declared a state of war for the entire country. Russia attacked Ukrainian border guards and bases, and there were explosions in many cities, he said in the hastily recorded cell phone video on Thursday. “Today you have to keep calm, stay at home if possible,” he called on the citizens. We work, the army works, the entire security and defense sector works.”

Ukraine is breaking off diplomatic relations with Russia, Zelenskiy announced in Kiev this morning. He also asked other states for defense assistance and called on the population to take up arms. For the first time, Russian and Ukrainian soldiers are facing each other in the conflict that has been going on for eight years.

In his speech, which he gave partly in Russian, he also called on Russians to protest against the war. “The Russians will decide for themselves which path each of them will take. For all those who have not yet lost their conscience, it is time to take to the streets and protest against this war.”

The trained lawyer, who first became famous as a comedian who plays a president, is determined to avoid panic without downplaying the situation. For a long time he hesitated with dramatic words and actions, only on Wednesday reservists were mobilized and a state of emergency was declared.

Zelensky demanded immediate security guarantees from the West. “The future of European security will be decided here, in Ukraine,” he said. The fact that the president is more driven than he is a leader is not lost on the population: more than half believe that Zelenskiy cannot protect them against Russia.

Nevertheless, the political novice, who was elected president in 2019 with almost three quarters of the votes, seems to have hit the mood in the country well, at least in the last few weeks, with his appearances. There is no sign of defeatism or even withdrawal movements.

The political scientist Olga Onuch attests him a remarkably integrative role: “Zelensky comes from the predominantly Russian-speaking south-east of Ukraine, whose population recognizes itself in him.” Today, this part of the population has a permanent place in the national community.

In many respects, Zelensky is the opposite of the distorted image that the Kremlin is not only projecting onto the country: according to this, Ukrainian-speaking nationalists from the West have dominated their Russian-speaking compatriots in the East since 2014. Zelenski is Jewish, only learned Ukrainian after he was a boy and is nevertheless a Ukrainian patriot. In October, former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev vehemently said that a man who, like Zelensky, had given up his identity was “disgusting”.

The language issue in Ukraine has been overly politicized in some cases, for example by Zelensky’s predecessor, Petro Poroshenko. But essentially the country remains bilingual, with many people using a hybrid called “Surschik”. As part of the “Identity and Borders in Flux” project, the researchers led by Olga Onuch showed that, since the late 1990s, Russian speakers have wanted good relations with their neighbors, but have clearly committed to a Ukrainian identity. “Zelensky’s landslide victory, which was largely driven by this demographic but extended well beyond it, was the result of that.”

The annexation of Crimea in 2014 and the Russian-fuelled war in Donbass have contributed to the fact that pro-Russian parties such as the opposition platform only received 13 percent of the vote five years later: their former constituency now lives in the separatist “people’s republics” of Donetsk and Luhansk and on the Crimea. In Ukraine, their political positions have clearly lost support, also due to Russian aggression.

Zelensky won the election with a populist promise to end the war and curb the influence of the oligarchs. While his track record on the latter is mixed, at least, and his moves against this elite sometimes have the smack of political reckoning, he quickly backed away from a negotiated settlement with the Kremlin. In view of the Russian recognition of the separatist areas and the invasion that has now begun, such a move is currently unthinkable.

Despite the lack of prospects, Zelensky had the right to lead Ukraine into the EU and NATO. However, he always kept a certain distance. “Zelensky doesn’t trust the West,” former Foreign Minister Pavlo Klimkin told the Financial Times. The President reacts thin-skinned to real and alleged pressure attempts.

He is not doing this without a reason, as former US President Donald Trump tried to blackmail Zelenski early in his term of office as part of the so-called Ukraine affair. After all, the friction would result, according to an expert interviewed by “France 24”, that he could not easily be portrayed as a puppet, as Moscow does.

Dark side of Selenski’s ambivalence

In the acute crisis situation of the last few months, however, the downside of Selenski’s ambivalence is also becoming apparent. The Ukrainian journalist Olga Rudenko recently wrote in a comment in the New York Times that was highly regarded and harshly criticized because of the timing, saying that Zelenski was overwhelmed and “unmasked by reality”. She is not the only one to complain that the President downplayed the threat posed by Russia for too long and even provoked conflicts with US President Joe Biden.

In particular, Zelenski’s mocking remarks about American warnings of an impending attack in January generated controversy. At the time he said ironically that the Russians would probably attack Kharkiv the following day. Zelenski urged Biden to “calm down” and wanted proof of the alleged plans from the West. “I don’t think we’re on the Titanic,” he said flippantly.

According to insiders, both sides have been working to coordinate better in public for the past few weeks. The result was evident when new sanctions were announced on Tuesday. On Thursday morning, too, the two agreed early on.

However, these missteps did not result in broad criticism from the political competition. “The elite has its conflicts,” says Olga Onuch, “but they are united against the external threat.” Along with the increased fighting power of the Ukrainian army, this is probably the main difference compared to 2014. However, another question is how the Ukrainians reacted to the invasion react and whether Zelenski’s messages are conducive to a resolute attitude or create confusion.

It is also noteworthy that the united stance towards the enemy and the lack of a real political alternative did not increase support for Zelensky. On the contrary, his popularity ratings have remained low since the beginning of the crisis, and he is threatened with losing the parliamentary majority in the next election.

Should Russia’s military pressure still force him to make compromises, he would have to reckon with protests from all sides. These are almost academic problems, however, given that Ukraine’s immediate future is highly uncertain.

“Zelensky’s tactic is to stay as calm as possible, and he doesn’t have any other choice,” Onuch said. But this reflects the mood of the population well: “If you can’t control the situation, you can at least avoid panicking your family and friends.”

More: Commentary: The Russian President dares the ultimate escalation with his open war against Ukraine. Is what he is doing madness or still political calculation?