Mexico City Andrés Manuel López Obrador – called AMLO – is always good for a surprise. Although his style of government is becoming increasingly autocratic, he is not trying to extend his tenure. No, the Mexican president seems to be going in the opposite direction: He wants to face a recall referendum on Sunday, even though his term of office lasts six years and there are still a good three years ahead of him.
Why does he want popular consent for the rest of his term? Is he possibly a model democrat after all? The opposition has a completely different interpretation – but from the start:
Obrador had the dismissal referendum written into the constitution in 2019. The addition is similar to the one that Venezuela’s former head of state Hugo Chávez organized in 2004 and won clearly at the time. Obrador’s election slogan: “AMLO is not alone, we’ll vote on April 10”, hashtag: “So that the President stays.”
“Ever since López Obrador began his social struggle more than 30 years ago, he has always believed that the citizens should be able to depose the rulers if they do not follow the rules,” explains Gabriela Jiménez Godoy, leader of the citizens’ movement “Que Siga La Democracia” (“That Democracy Continues”). The organization is something like the President’s extended arm into civil society. Its motto is: “The people give and the people take.”
Top jobs of the day
Find the best jobs now and
be notified by email.
Since the end of 2018, López Obrador, who started as a left hope for Mexico, has governed. His approval ratings are consistently hovering around a respectable 60 percent. This is surprising in view of the numerous crises, an eerie number of murders and the large number of people who have disappeared. Organized crime is also increasing in the country, while the necessary high economic growth is lacking.
Even his increasing self-importance cannot harm the image. And now, with the referendum, the 68-year-old is making good on a promise he made during the election campaign, which some criticize as populism and others praise as direct democracy.
The dispute in the opposition
The referendum has been a major point of contention for months. The opposition calls for a boycott and criticizes the cost of the equivalent of around 175 million euros. The project is nothing more than “very expensive theatre”, the right-wing party PAN etched. The Electoral Commission INE also took a stand and refused to provide money for the referendum. Only the Supreme Court ruled in favor of the President.
In any case, the referendum and the dispute over it are a good opportunity for a mid-term review of López Obrador’s presidency. And here, too, it becomes clear: a lot of words, few deeds, many promises, few results. But he is not even secretly and quietly building the country into an autocratic state, but openly and loudly.
López Obrador rules according to the principle of the old French “Sun King” Louis XIV: “L’état, c’est moi”. The state, that’s me. Ministers are accessories, interchangeable and may serve as scapegoats. From the point of view of entrepreneurs and experts, its balance sheet is particularly poor from an economic point of view.
According to surveys, the necessary participation in the referendum will not be achieved.
(Photo: AP)
Right at the beginning of his term of office, he stopped major projects such as the airport construction in the capital and reversed the energy reform. Reliability has been lost, the relationship between the entrepreneurs and the president has cooled off very quickly.
López Obrador does not take into account the interests of business or is indifferent to them, says Johannes Hauser, Managing Director of the German-Mexican Chamber of Commerce and Industry (AHK Mexico). After three years, this led to a “crisis of confidence between the president and the private sector, which is reflected in reluctance to invest and affects growth,” Hauser emphasized in an interview with the Handelsblatt.
Mexico’s economy ‘remains well below its potential’
Last year, Mexico’s gross domestic product grew by five percent, but that’s far too little to absorb the crash during the pandemic. In 2020, the second largest economy in Latin America experienced one of the worst economic slumps in its history.
Overall economic production shrank by 8.5 percent. And for this year, the central bank Banxico recently lowered its growth forecast to around 2.4 percent. After all, the President has retained the free trade orientation, which compensates for some things, emphasizes AHK boss Hauser.
“But Mexico’s economy remains well below its potential, and the president is doing nothing to change that.” Other election promises apart from the economic recovery have also not been fulfilled so far. Corruption has not been combated noticeably, and organized crime has not been averted in any way.
In addition, civil society and human rights organizations are under pressure, and in the first three months of the year more journalists have been murdered than ever before. After all – and this essentially explains his high popularity – he has the poor in mind, sets up social programs and awards scholarships to young people from poor backgrounds.
The mere fact that his discourse is suddenly directed at the 50 million Mexicans who have always remained in the dark because they are poor or destitute ensures the president’s enormous popularity. He now wants to convert this into new support with Sunday’s referendum.
Referendum: not binding after all?
But the people themselves hardly seem to be interested in the referendum. According to surveys, the necessary participation of 40 percent, which would make this referendum binding, will not be reached. The forecasts assume a turnout of ten to 25 percent. So nothing but expenses?
Edgardo Buscaglia from New York’s Columbia University considers the referendum to be a further step towards autocracy in Mexico. “On Sunday it’s all about the president and his person.” But the first half of his left-wing government will not be comprehensively evaluated, says the expert on organized crime and intimate knowledge of Mexico in an interview.
This referendum confirms once again that López Obrador is an “authoritarian demagogue” who in many ways resembles the Argentine caudillo Juan Domingo Perón. In his ideology, the Mexican President combines elements of “extreme right-wing positions”, for example on gender issues and religious issues. But he is also a dedicated leftist when it comes to poverty reduction and social programs, Buscaglia emphasizes.
Political scientist Viri Rios, on the other hand, thinks the survey is a good idea. Finally, the second largest country in Latin America is “not only polarized, but also politicized”. “We’ve always had a totally hypothermic democracy. Now she’s getting excited.”
More: Mexico is becoming increasingly tricky as a business location