Sao Paulo It was already clear before New Year’s Day that the office would not be handed over in accordance with democratic practice. Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, who was voted out two months ago, flew to the USA before New Year’s Eve.
Bolsonaro’s Vice President and Reserve General Hamilton Mourão also refused to attend Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s inauguration. The last time that happened was at the end of the military dictatorship in 1985, when junta president João Figueiredo refused to hand over the office sash to his democratic successor.
Lula da Silva’s inauguration ceremony was scheduled to begin late Sunday evening – under massive security precautions. Since the election defeat two months ago, Bolsonaro supporters have been demonstrating in front of the army headquarters in Brasília against the transfer of power. They consider the elections to be fraudulent and call for the military to intervene.
Federal police strongly advised Lula not to drive around Brasília in an open car, as is customary for presidents when they take office. Because it is unclear who will be responsible for security during the handover. The military, whose three branches of service feature prominently during the ceremony, are without leadership. There are differences between the Army, Navy and Air Force over who will or will not be in office as of January 1st. Parts of the military do not accept Lula as supreme commander.
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>> Read here: Outgoing President Bolsonaro leaves Brazil
This is problematic for the security situation, because it is difficult to assess how much support Bolsonaro supporters have from the military. The designated defense minister, José Múcio Monteiro, now faces the difficult task of restricting the army, which also became politically influential under Bolsonaro, to its task of national defense as a civilian.
Steinmeier meets with Lula da Silva
Federal President Frank-Walter Steinmeier, who had traveled to Brazil for the ceremony, pledged German support to Brazil’s new President Lula da Silva before his inauguration. “My visit is intended to provide an impetus for restarting bilateral relations between our two countries,” Steinmeier said on Saturday in Berlin before leaving for Brazil. The visit should also give an impetus “for our common goal of protecting the Amazon rainforest, the green lung of our world, from deforestation”.
The Federal President arrived in Brasília on Saturday afternoon. Shortly after, he had a one-to-one conversation with Lula. By taking part in the ceremony, Steinmeier wants to send a signal that Germany sees Brazil as an important strategic partner – both politically and economically. Bilateral relations had suffered during Bolsonaro’s four years in office.
Federal President Frank-Walter Steinmeier speaks with the new Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (left) on the eve of the inauguration ceremony.
(Photo: dpa)
Intensive negotiations are under way in Brasilia about the formation of the new government. It’s easier to win an election than to put together a cabinet, the president-elect, who had already served two terms in office from 2003 to 2011, recently moaned.
He has been busy selecting personnel for his cabinet for two months. There are also other key positions in state-owned companies and authorities as well as the second hierarchical level in politics and administration. He has already selected 37 ministers. For the first time, with eleven female ministers, around a third of the cabinet positions are occupied by women.
Lula doesn’t have a majority in Congress
The reason for the negotiation marathon to the end: Lula’s Labor Party and the left do not have a majority in Congress. That’s why the president needs to include as many representatives of the center-right parties as possible in a coalition. In Brazil, this is traditionally done with item or budget allocations.
At the same time, however, Lula must consider his own Labor Party – and rein in its sprawling claims to positions of influence so as not to alienate potential allies directly. For example, Lula has relied on close, long-time confidants in defense, justice, finance and the State Department.
He wants to get the government machine up and running as quickly as possible. It is seen positively that Lula primarily used experienced politicians and no left-wing ideologues. Many of them have just been elected governors, members of parliament or senators and thus have more political legitimacy than party officials or technocrats would.
The environment department is likely to play a key role in Lula’s government. His former Environment Minister Marina Silva will take over the portfolio again. After the disaster under Bolsonaro, Lula wants to revise Brazil’s battered reputation as a rainforest destroyer and climate sinner with a new environmental and Amazon policy.
The new foreign minister, Mauro Vieira, has a similarly important position: the experienced diplomat should end Brazil’s isolation in world politics and re-elevate the country’s geopolitical status – just like in Lula’s first terms of office. He should also revive contacts with Europe, the USA and China.
>> Read here: In Brazil, cash is becoming less and less common
The economy is concerned about the announcements about future budgetary and economic policy: Because the government had already approved massive increases in public spending before they took office. Lula wants to see the state again as the most important player in the economy. After the first negative reactions on the financial markets, Lula, in addition to his close confidant Fernando Haddad, has appointed two conservative ministers to head the departments of planning, industry, economic development and trade in order to placate investors.
Lula knows full well that economic developments over the next few months will be crucial to the success of his administration. It’s clear that Bolsonaro is speculating that Lula’s popularity could soon wane given the weak economy. Liberal politician Tasso Jerissati predicts: “If Lula fails in business, Bolsonaro will rise again.”
More: Brazil’s President Lula is falling into old patterns – and worrying the economy