President Lula takes office under tight security

Lula da Silva’s inauguration ceremony began late Sunday evening – under massive security precautions. Since the election defeat two months ago, Bolsonaro supporters have been demonstrating in front of the army headquarters in Brasília against the transfer of power. They consider the elections to be fraudulent and call for the military to intervene.

Shortly before the swearing-in, the police actually arrested a man who tried to gain access to the esplanade in the capital Brasilia with an explosive device and a knife. A military police representative told Reuters news agency.

The federal police strongly advised Lula not to drive through Brasília in an open car, as is customary for presidents when they take office. Because it was unclear who should have been responsible for security during the handover. The military, whose three branches of service feature prominently during the ceremony, are without leadership. There are differences between the Army, Navy and Air Force over who will or will not be in office as of January 1st. Parts of the military do not accept Lula as supreme commander.

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This is problematic for the security situation, because it is difficult to assess how much support Bolsonaro supporters have from the military. The designated defense minister, José Múcio Monteiro, now faces the difficult task of restricting the army, which also became politically influential under Bolsonaro, to its task of national defense as a civilian.

Steinmeier meets with Lula da Silva

Federal President Frank-Walter Steinmeier, who traveled to Brazil for the ceremony, said on Sunday: “It’s good to know that Brazil is back on the international stage.” The Federal President had previously had a one-to-one conversation with Lula.

“We need a Brazilian political leadership that will play its part – not only in economic cooperation, but also in protecting the global climate,” said Steinmeier. He was pleased to find that Lula was willing to fulfill exactly this role with Brazil. “And he is counting on the fact that not only Germany, but also Germany, is willing to cooperate internationally.” Bilateral relations had suffered during Bolsonaro’s four years in office.

Intensive negotiations are under way in Brasilia about the formation of the new government. It’s easier to win an election than to put together a cabinet, the president-elect, who had already served two terms in office from 2003 to 2011, recently moaned.

He has been busy selecting personnel for his cabinet for two months. There are also other key positions in state-owned companies and authorities as well as the second hierarchical level in politics and administration. He has already selected 37 ministers. For the first time, with eleven female ministers, around a third of the cabinet positions are occupied by women.

Lula doesn’t have a majority in Congress

The reason for the negotiation marathon to the end: Lula’s Labor Party and the left do not have a majority in Congress. That’s why the president needs to include as many representatives of the center-right parties as possible in a coalition. In Brazil, this is traditionally done with item or budget allocations.

At the same time, however, Lula must consider his own Labor Party – and rein in its sprawling claims to positions of influence so as not to alienate potential allies directly. For example, Lula has relied on close, long-time confidants in defense, justice, finance and the State Department.

He wants to get the government machine up and running as quickly as possible. It is seen positively that Lula primarily used experienced politicians and no left-wing ideologues. Many of them have just been elected governors, members of parliament or senators and thus have more political legitimacy than party officials or technocrats would.

The environment department is likely to play a key role in Lula’s government. His former Environment Minister Marina Silva will take over the portfolio again. After the disaster under Bolsonaro, Lula wants to revise Brazil’s battered reputation as a rainforest destroyer and climate sinner with a new environmental and Amazon policy.

The new foreign minister, Mauro Vieira, has a similarly important position: the experienced diplomat should end Brazil’s isolation in world politics and re-elevate the country’s geopolitical status – just like in Lula’s first terms of office. He should also revive contacts with Europe, the USA and China.

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The economy is concerned about the announcements about future budgetary and economic policy: Because the government had already approved massive increases in public spending before they took office. Lula wants to see the state again as the most important player in the economy. After the first negative reactions on the financial markets, Lula, in addition to his close confidant Fernando Haddad, has appointed two conservative ministers to head the departments of planning, industry, economic development and trade in order to placate investors.

Lula knows full well that economic developments over the next few months will be crucial to the success of his administration. It’s clear that Bolsonaro is speculating that Lula’s popularity could soon wane given the weak economy. Liberal politician Tasso Jerissati predicts: “If Lula fails in business, Bolsonaro will rise again.”

With agency material.

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