Frankfort, Paris While climate activists want to restrict air traffic worldwide, the aircraft manufacturers Airbus and Boeing are currently struggling with a completely different problem. They expect worldwide demand for new jets to rise sharply and are vying for new orders at the Paris Air Show, which started on Monday. The two have difficulties in working off their existing order book.
Airbus, for example, is fully booked until the early 2030s. At the same time, both groups are working on the new generation of aircraft that cause fewer emissions and are expected to become climate-neutral in the future. The first models could come onto the market in the coming decade. In view of this, the question arises as to whether the jets ordered today will still be built and used at all.
Airbus is relaxed. “There is such a massive demand for aircraft to replace older machines,” said Christian Scherer, head of the commercial aircraft division, on the sidelines of the Paris Air Show. “Our current product range will stretch well into the 2030s and beyond, although we may see new aircraft technologies in the next decade.”
Michael Schöllhorn, President of the Federal Association of the German Aerospace Industry, feels reminded of “past generational leaps” in the aviation industry. There will be a shutdown of the old models and a ramp-up of the new models. “But not a demolition that happens from one month to the next,” said the manager, who also heads Airbus’ armaments and space travel division, in Paris. “That’s going to be a multi-year overlap.”
The big competitor Boeing argues similarly. “The 40,000 commercial aircraft that will be in the air by the end of the decade cannot simply be converted to hydrogen,” emphasized Brian Moran, Boeing’s vice president for sustainability, some time ago in an interview with the Handelsblatt.
Manufacturers expect well over 40,000 jets worldwide by 2042
Airbus assumes that in 2042 the airlines will have more than 46,000 aircraft in operation, while Boeing expects a good 48,000 active commercial aircraft worldwide. The difference between the forecasts: Airbus only counts aircraft with at least 100 seats, Boeing also counts smaller regional jets. However, both agree: short and medium-haul aircraft such as the Airbus A320 and the Boeing 737 are likely to make up the majority of the new aircraft.
Stuart Hatcher of the market research firm IBA expects around 2,100 aircraft to be ordered in Paris. “These are not orders for the 2020s, but for the 2030s,” Hatcher told the Bloomberg news agency, looking at the manufacturers’ full order books.
>> Read also: Aviation suppliers declare a personnel emergency
Airbus boss Guillaume Faury speaks of a “very strong momentum”. Not only in Paris do the manufacturers get numerous orders. Faury explained on the sidelines of the fair that the group had recently sold 60 medium-haul jets from the A320 family and ten long-haul jets of the A350 type. The contracts have been signed, but are only to be made public in the course of June.
However, both Boeing and Airbus have problems processing the numerous orders. Aircraft manufacturers and suppliers suffer from shortages of components, raw materials and labour. Airbus boss Faury said the gap between supply and demand will remain “for years to come”. The world’s largest aircraft manufacturer actually wanted to build 65 aircraft of the A320 family per month soon. But now this value should not be reached until the end of 2024. The target of 75 jets has been pushed back by one year to 2026.
The aircraft manufacturer is ramping up production more slowly than originally planned.
(Photo: dpa)
Airbus now has more than 7,200 aircraft in the order book that have not yet been built. At Boeing there are at least 4600 aircraft. The US group is also struggling with massive problems. He is allowed to deliver the A320 competitor, the 737 Max, again. Aviation authorities around the world had banned this for almost two years because two jets had crashed due to software programming that was too aggressive.
But there are always quality problems at Boeing in production and in the components supplied. Sometimes it affects the fuselages of the 737 Max, sometimes parts that are installed on the long-haul aircraft 787 (Dreamliner). In addition, the corona crisis had left large debts on Boeing’s books.
Stan Deal, head of the US company’s commercial aircraft division, was nevertheless confident in Paris. Boeing will accelerate 737 production “sooner rather than later.” At the same time, the group is working on ideas for a successor to the 737 Max.
>> Read also: Boom at Airbus and Boeing – Nhe competition for mega orders that was there before
Among other things, the developers rely on a so-called shoulder decker. The massive wings are attached to the top of the fuselage and braced against the fuselage with struts. Together with modern materials, the aircraft should use up to 30 percent less fuel. In addition, it could be fueled with synthetically produced SAF, which causes significantly fewer emissions.
Airbus is also working on a new generation of aircraft. One approach is the so-called “open rotor”. It is a combination of turbofan engines, such as those used in large commercial aircraft, and turboprop engines, such as those found in smaller regional aircraft. The drive should get by with up to 25 percent less fuel. “We are preparing technical solutions to improve every single component of our aircraft with a view to the climate,” said Sabine Klauke, Head of Technology at Airbus, in Paris.
The optimized “burners” are needed. Airbus is working on a completely new aircraft engine: hydrogen. But it will be many years before this is ready for the market. So a bridge model is necessary because the existing models can no longer be modernized accordingly.
In industry circles, around eight years are estimated for the development of a new aircraft. By 2028 at the latest, Airbus would have to decide what an A320 successor should look like. And the course for the hydrogen drive must then also be set.
More: C919 – mChina wants to compete with Airbus and Boeing with this aircraft