Yesterday, at this point, I pointed out that the perceived relaxation in the Ukraine crisis corresponds above all to western wishful thinking. Now reality has caught up with us. So far there has been no confirmation of the troop withdrawal announced by Moscow on Tuesday. Instead, according to US information, 7,000 additional Russian soldiers are said to have arrived in the border region. US President Joe Biden has warned of a Russian invasion of Ukraine in the next few days. The danger of an invasion is “very high”.
Moscow rejects these allegations. President Vladimir Putin’s spokesman said it was taking a while before the partial withdrawal that had started could be seen. An invasion of Ukraine is not planned, but developments in the Donbass are being monitored very closely. At the same time, the Ukrainian government reports shelling from the Donbass region occupied by separatists. The fear: If there is unrest there, Russia could provide the occasion for military intervention.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said at the UN Security Council in New York that Russia was trying to construct an excuse to justify an attack. Possible are an alleged terrorist attack in Russia, the “fictional discovery of a mass grave” and allegations of genocide, a staged drone attack on civilians or a simulated or real attack with chemical weapons.
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Perhaps the best news of yesterday: the EU Commission assured that it was well prepared in the event that Russia cuts off gas supplies. Many ships carrying liquefied natural gas (LNG) have been diverted to Europe, a spokeswoman said. In January, 120 ships brought a total of ten billion cubic meters of LNG to the continent. This secures the energy supply. Just two weeks ago, the LNG supply was far more shaky.
Have you ever wondered what happened to the 5,000 helmets that Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht (SPD) promised Ukraine in January as an aid delivery? Well, to be honest, neither do I. But my colleague Fabian Reinbold from T-Online did the obvious thing for a journalist and asked the ministry. Answer: “The protective helmets are packed and ready for transport in a Bundeswehr depot.”
(Photo: imago images/Ukrinform)
It has only been a good three weeks since the minister’s announcement, which should correspond to the flapping of a hummingbird’s wings in the parallel universe of Bundeswehr procurement. However, I ask myself: If there seems to be little chance that the German delivery will arrive in time for possible combat operations anyway, why don’t we promise Ukraine real hits right away: biogas-powered aircraft carriers, Leopard tanks in AMG special paintwork, a front tour by Vicky Leandros.
Because: All of this would save us a lot of grumbling from the direction of Kiev, where the helmet offer was not really gratefully received.
Not that that is crucial in this situation, but for a business newspaper the information is part of it: The fear of war is unsettling the financial markets. The Dax fell by a good 0.6 percent, the US index S&P 500 by 2.1 percent. Gold prices rose to their highest level in seven months.
Times are not easy for shareholders, not only because of the Ukraine crisis: The courses have been crumbling since the beginning of the year, but there hasn’t been a real crash that would invite people to buy more. In such hours, believers in capitalism look for solace in the price charts of the Omaha prophet of returns, and lo and behold: Warren Buffett continues to bet on Apple. The computer maker makes up nearly half of the individual stocks in Buffett’s investment holding Berkshire Hathaway’s portfolio.
It is particularly exciting where Buffett has recently increased: at the oil company Chevron, which is avoided by many sustainable funds. But hey, four percent dividend yield is also a form of sustainability. Andreas Neuhaus, co-head of our investment team, tracked down the current portfolio shifts of three other investment gurus in addition to Buffett.
Late in the evening, Allianz reported a record profit of 13.4 billion euros for 2021. At the same time, the group announced that it had made provisions of 3.7 billion euros for possible penalties and compensation payments in connection with hedge fund losses. Even if it doesn’t sound like it: This is reassuring news for Allianz shareholders, because claims payments of up to six billion euros have so far been pending.
For some, this message is also a question of investing, for others one of survival: Food will remain expensive for a long time and fuel inflation. This is the assumption of leading agricultural economists and nutritional organizations. They expect food prices to remain at the skyrocketing level after the pandemic or, in some cases, to continue to rise.
Grain or corn are currently between 40 and 50 percent more expensive than at the end of 2019. Matin Quaim, professor at the University of Bonn and one of the leading German agricultural economists, tells the Handelsblatt: “We have long been in a global food crisis, and it will only get worse. “
Aid organizations warn of supply problems and increasing hunger in Africa and Latin America. Food manufacturers have also announced further price increases for Germany.
The problems are not solely due to Covid-19, but also to climate change and conflicts. The Ukraine crisis and the fear of crop failures are currently keeping grain prices volatile. The US agricultural economist Ertharin Cousin calls for aid for investments in affected countries and openness to new approaches. The Bayer supervisory board member says: “Without technology, we will not solve the food crisis.”
(Photo: Bloomberg)
And then there’s our weekend title, which rarely lends itself to comic relief at the end of the morning briefing, but it does this week. Unless you were a Wirecard shareholder or the bankrupt company still owes you money or you were an auditor who audited the annual financial statements of the financial service provider – then you shouldn’t read any further. The brazen robber’s pistol, which we describe under the heading “The Raid”, may well conjure up an incredulous grin on everyone else’s face.
For months, my colleagues around investigative boss Sönke Iwersen have been dealing with one of the biggest mysteries of the Wirecard affair. This is the takeover of the Indian Hermes Group, for which Wirecard paid around 315 million euros in 2016. Today we know that the seller, a letterbox company in Mauritius, had only recently acquired the company herself – for 35 million euros.
How did this miraculous increase in money come about? And above all: Who bagged the difference? The alleged driver of the deal was a certain Rahul Sharma. A closer look reveals that this phantom doesn’t even exist. And if you then put the remaining pieces of the puzzle together, a picture emerges. The biggest takeover in Wirecard’s history was also the biggest coup by Jan Marsalek, the company’s former Asia board member who went into hiding.
I wish you a day when you don’t chase phantoms – and the phantoms don’t chase you.
Best regards
Her
Christian Rickens
PS: On Monday, my freshly recovered colleague Hans-Jürgen Jakobs will welcome you at this point. Thank you for your attention and I look forward to the next holiday replacement.