Frankfurt Now it’s official: almost three months after going public, the sports car manufacturer Porsche will be included in the Dax. Deutsche Börse announced this late Monday evening as part of its quarterly index review. The sporting goods manufacturer Puma has to make way for this. After the index change on December 19, it will be listed in the MDax of the 50 largest small caps.
Since the place in an index depends on the market value of the freely traded shares, Porsche was considered a Dax candidate from the outset. Since the IPO, the share has increased by around 30 percent to around 107 euros – which is why Porsche was no longer in the Dax.
Read now which shares are moving up into the German indices, who has to give up their place and what opportunities analysts see in Porsche shares.
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Porsche shares overtake Porsche Holding and parent company VW
The name Porsche will now appear twice in the Dax. Porsche Holding, in which the Piech and Porsche families have bundled their shares in the parent company VW and Porsche AG, rose in September last year to the Dax, which had expanded by ten to 40 companies. VW is a Dax founding member.
Since the IPO, the shares of the sports car manufacturer Porsche have clearly overtaken those of Porsche Holding and VW. The Porsche Holding share has fallen slightly since the end of September, while VW’s has gained around nine percent and thus less than the Dax. However, analysts no longer see much potential in Porsche AG shares.
Less than half of the analysts advise buying Porsche shares
Less than half of the banks that cover Porsche recommend buying it, and the average price target for Porsche shares is at current levels. The analysis company Bernstein Research, which now considers the share to be expensive, is particularly skeptical. “Measured by the course, everything has to work perfectly,” says analyst Daniel Roeska. In the new year, however, cyclical headwinds are likely to dampen Porsche’s profits. Roeska therefore advises selling the share with a price target of EUR 85.
Jürgen Pieper from Bankhaus Metzler is much more optimistic. He assumes that the Porsche share will cost 130 euros in twelve months. The sports car manufacturer offers “a rare combination of a strong industrial core business with many of the advantages of a luxury group”. With the Taycan car model, Porsche has also proven that it can cope well with the transition to the electric age.
For Porsche CFO Lutz Meschke, the “rapid, direct entry into the Dax” is a sign that the business model is “robust and attractive for investors even in a challenging environment”. In addition, the company convinces with its “definition of modern luxury that focuses on sustainability and assumes social responsibility”.
Verbio share rises to the MDax
Deutsche Börse has also recompiled the MDax of Germany’s 50 largest second-line stocks. The biofuel manufacturer Verbio Vereinigte Bioenergie rises and displaces the Deutsche Wohnen share. The price of the Verbio share, which had previously risen sharply, halved from April to June, but the share has since taken off again. The bottom line is that it has gained more than 20 percent since the beginning of the year.
The Deutsche Wohnen share, on the other hand, is suffering, like many real estate groups, from the rise in interest rates. Until November last year, the company even belonged to the Dax. However, the majority takeover by Vonovia reduced the free float so significantly that Deutsche Wohnen had to leave the Dax unscheduled. Now the further fall in the price is causing the relegation to the SDax, in which 70 so-called small caps are listed. These are companies with a stock market value in the two to three-digit million range.
>> Read here: These figures show why the German real estate market is considered risky
The share of the battery manufacturer Varta is also falling from the MDax to the SDax. You have to make room for the Dax relegated Puma.
Varta shares have fallen by around 75 percent since January. This makes it the weakest share in the MDax. The battery manufacturer has already had to lower its profit forecast twice. The high prices for raw materials and energy are particularly difficult for the people of Baden-Württemberg.
Elmos Semiconductor shares and Adva Optical shares are new to the SDax
The shares of the semiconductor manufacturer Elmos Semiconductor and the network equipment supplier Adva Optical Networking have climbed into the SDax. The Elmos share dropped significantly in the first half of the year, as did many other technology stocks. Since the end of September, however, it has increased by more than 60 percent in the course of the recovery and has reached an all-time high with a peak of over 63 euros. The fact that the federal government prohibited the sale of a semiconductor plant from Elmos Semiconductor to a subsidiary of the Chinese Sai Microelectronics in order to protect the critical infrastructure in Germany only had a short impact on the share at the beginning of November.
Adva Optical is now majority owned by the US fiber optics specialist Adtran Holdings. Adtran had offered the Adva shareholders EUR 0.8244 of its own shares. The German company was valued at EUR 17.17 per share when the bid was announced at the end of August. The exchanged Adva shares have continued to rise since then and now cost almost 21 euros.
The shares of the real estate developer Instone Real Estate and the special pharmaceutical company Medios have to make room for Elmos Semiconductor and Adva Optical in the SDax. You will no longer find yourself in any index after December 19th. This also applies to the online fashion retailer’s share, which has fallen by around 70 percent since January About You. She has to be in the SDax for the MDax relegated Varta give way and is then no longer listed in any index.
Nothing will change in the TecDax
There are no changes this time in the TecDax of the 30 largest German technology stocks. The next index review will take place on March 3rd. Then there could be more changes. The reason: At the reviews in March and September, the ascent and descent hurdles are lower than in December and June.
In the Dax, for example, it is enough for a rise in March and September if the market value of a company’s freely tradable shares is in 40th place of the 240 or so companies that are in principle suitable for inclusion in an index. In December and June, on the other hand, only those companies that have developed particularly well and have climbed to at least 33rd place in this ranking are included in the Dax. Porsche easily managed this rise by jumping to 25th place.
In December and June, a company only has to be demoted from the Dax from 61st place on the ranking list. Recently, no Dax value was so bad. In March and September, however, companies drop out of the Dax from rank 54. However, this only applies if there is a company on the other side that has climbed to at least 47th place in the ranking.
More: Porsche before the rise – The Dax is becoming more and more familiar