After the major earthquakes in 10 provinces centered in Kahramanmaraş, Science Academy Member Earth Scientist Prof. Dr. Naci Görür’s previous warnings about this region had come to the fore. So, for which other regions did the famous professor give warnings and continue to do so?
How well do Turkish people know the geologist Naci Görür, whose name has been heard frequently in Turkey lately? Previously, he warned about where and in which regions the earthquake would occur, but it was not taken into account. After the sad earthquake disaster, Naci Görür’s statements are on the agenda on social media. Most people say, “Which region is next? The expected big About the Marmara earthquake What should we pay attention to?” is looking for answers to questions such as.
Among the scientists in our country that we should take into account what they say is Naci Görür. What were the warnings and statements of the esteemed scientist about Turkey, which is called earthquake country? What warnings did we miss? Him-her-it reminding us that we should listen more often and heed his warnings.We have compiled for you the warnings that he made about the earthquake before.
First of all, let’s talk about Naci Görür’s career:
Born in 1947 in Elazig, Naci Görür won the ITU Mining Engineering Department in 1966. He completed his master’s degree in geological engineering in 1971. He worked as an assistant at ITU until 1973, after which he continued his doctorate in England. Famous geoscientist; DIC at London University, Imperial College, Royal School of Mines, M. Phil. and PhD degrees.
He continued his studies at ITU in 1978. Associate professor at this school in 1983; He became a professor in 1989. Görer is an expert in sedimentology and marine geology. Sedimentary basins, tectonics and seas of Turkey He has done serious research on It also continues to make significant contributions to raising awareness of our country about earthquakes.
Especially after the 1999 earthquake, he carried out intensive studies to reveal the earthquake potential of Marmara.
It is seen that Naci Görür, who intensified his work even more after the 1999 earthquake that shook Turkey deeply, carried out many national projects. He was also given the Encouragement Award by TUBITAK in 1983. He was elected a principal member of the Turkish Academy of Sciences in 1997 and later Winner of the NATO science award in 2004.
Görür, who has been involved in numerous local and national studies, is literally in love with geology. TÜBİTAK granted him various duties in this field, and Görür also served as a member of the scientific board. In 2000, he was appointed as the Head of the Marmara Research Center of the same institution. Soon He returned to teaching at ITU, where he has been continuing since 2010. Is it any surprise to you that we didn’t care about the ideas of a scientist whose career development was so brilliant?
He used many domestic and foreign ships in his research: He dived into Marmara with a manned submarine called Nautile.
Marmara Sea fault map
Diving to the bottom of 1240 meters of Marmara, Görür, who examined the fault line threatening Istanbul, Prof. Dr. Naci Görür and his colleagues are still using a seafloor test to measure the seismicity and oceanographic features of the Marmara Sea. submarine observation station They continue to build.
“The Kahramanmaraş earthquake was not an earthquake unknown to us, it was an earthquake shouting that it was coming!”
After the Elazig earthquake in 2020, He said that the Maraş region should be taken care of. Görer made a lot of statements about this region. On October 6, 2019, he said in a news program that he was a guest that attention should be paid to the East Anatolian Fault.
“The East Anatolian Fault has been silent for a long time. The North Anatolian Fault has largely discharged its energy. It stands at the gates of Istanbul. For example, there has been no earthquake around Maraş since the 1500s. A warning was given on the Malatya Fault saying ‘there is a lot of energy accumulation here, one should be careful’. There are historical major earthquakes between Elazig and Bingol, especially the area where Sivrice is located, and between Elazig and Adıyaman. It is necessary to do serious work here and work on urban transformation. Hatay region is a place where we expect and warn about earthquakes.”
Was the East Anatolian Fault asleep or awakened in the Elazig earthquake?
Yes, he was sleeping. According to Görür, the two fault line belts that bring about Turkey’s greatest tectonic events converge in Bingöl-Karlıova. The East Anatolian Fault starts from Karlıova and reaches Kahramanmaraş with a length of 600 km. It makes an angle in Maraş and goes towards Hatay. One of its branches is advancing towards Osmaniye and Adana. He also stated that one of the faults that produce earthquakes is this fault line.
The other line is the North Anatolian Fault, which starts from Bingöl and passes through Marmara and extends to Greece. He underlines that the biggest earthquakes are also here. The blocks on both sides of these two faults move by rubbing against each other. In his statements, Naci Görür said, “The Elazig Fault has awakened.” Because, in a sense, the sister of the Elazig Fault, the North Anatolian Fault discharged all its energy in the 20th century: Except for Marmara!
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If the North Anatolian Fault behaves like this, why shouldn’t the East Anatolian Fault behave like this?
Görer made the following statements on this: I have a fear of the East Anatolian Fault. I’m afraid that this Starting from Karlıova, the regions will go wild until they reach the Mediterranean. Eastern Anatolia will be completely destroyed by earthquakes, and it will drain us of its energy! For this reason, the Elazig earthquake may have transferred energy to Erkenek, Çelikhan, Maraş Türkoğlu, Hatay; it may have increased the existing accumulated energy there. Therefore, I said that an earthquake could be triggered there, too. I first made this warning in 2020. Then I said it every day, every month whenever I could.
Since the last earthquake in Kahramanmaraş with a magnitude of 7.3 and 7.4 was in 1514, the energy was sufficiently accumulated here as well.
According to sources, there was an earthquake felt from Cairo on the Tarsus-Malatya-Adana line in 1514. Since the region had been accumulating energy for a long time, as Görür had pointed out, it posed a great risk. the fear he felt “Watch out for Maraş, start earthquake preparations, don’t neglect urban renewal” expressed in words.
Earthquakes in the region between 1500-1900:
- The size of the dots indicates the intensity of the earthquake.
Naci Görür warned for Hatay and Adana this time.
This earthquake was an earthquake produced by the strike-slip fault system. The earthquake in this system continues by rubbing the blocks on both sides. When there is an earthquake, a pulse is formed here. The fault that produced the earthquake has a left-sided strike-slip. The main movement of the fault occurred towards the south: Hatay and Adana. Here too abnormally accumulated stress. According to the professor, there is tremendous pressure in that area. It may be unbroken parts or a continuation of the ratio.
The places we are concerned about are Bingöl and Karlıova. Görer says that the last earthquake there was in 1766 and is expected in the near future.
“The Istanbul earthquake is just as close as the Maraş earthquake.”
With the statements made by Görür 3 days before the earthquake being on the agenda, he stated that he felt the same concern for Istanbul as he had for Maraş. He added that although the earthquake in Maraş was larger than the expected Marmara earthquake, the destruction would be greater than that of Maraş. For the earthquake that will occur in Istanbul, 7.5 magnitude there is a guess.
Both faults in Turkey have discharged most of their energy. There will be no earthquakes in these two fault zones in Turkey in the next few hundred years. This is a chance for us to prepare the country for an earthquake.
Saying that we should accept the earthquake as a reality and that we can prevent this disaster by creating earthquake-resistant cities, Naci Görür expressed what we can do as follows:We have to create earthquake resistant cities. The first priority of all governments should be to ensure the safety of the people instead of building roads.
components of the city (management, public, infrastructure, building stock, environment, economy) we need to make it earthquake resistant. We can summarize how this will happen as follows:
- in every city training of managers and they need to be made aware.
- People earthquake-focused training earthquake culture.
- Infrastructure is the most important thing. It is necessary to make the entire infrastructure of the cities resistant to earthquakes. For example, the road should not pass through the places where the earthquake line is located.
- Completion of the building stock suitable for earthquakes must.
- Not polluting the environment is also quite important. If the piles of rubble that emerge after the earthquake are not disposed of properly, all these will return as a disease.
- Finally economic development is necessary. According to Naci Görür, as long as all these are taken care of, that city becomes resistant to earthquakes.
Why weren’t Naci Görür and Celal Şengör invited to the earthquake commission formed by the Turkish Grand National Assembly?
After his explanations, the professor Duty from AFAD or any government agency To the question of whether:
“BI guess we don’t live before them. They don’t see us. An obvious example of what they haven’t even seen: An earthquake investigation commission was established in the Grand National Assembly of Turkey, everyone was invited, not one Naci Görür or Celal Şengör. I really don’t know why. We have no other purpose than to serve our country and our people. While I can live at home, I am now serving in the municipality to prepare Istanbul for an earthquake. If I was the head of the team whose main source was the basic work on the Marmara earthquake, they should have listened to us as well.” gave the answer.
After President Erdoğan announced that he will start the construction of 30 thousand houses at the beginning of March, Naci Görür also expressed his opinion on the subject.
President Erdogan’s that he did not find the decision to start the construction of housing right immediately. He emphasized the importance of starting the construction after the microzonation work in these regions.
He counted the safe districts in Istanbul one by one.
Naci Görür, who thinks that the European Side will be more affected by the earthquake, states that the generation starting from the Golden Horn to Silivri will be affected. Zeytinburnu, Bakirkoy, Buyukcekmece, Kucukcekmeceare the areas that will magnify the earthquake effect.
“The areas to the north of the second Bosphorus bridge are relatively less affected by the Istanbul earthquake. The south of this line is relatively more affected. However, the probability of these effects varies depending on the ground-independent engineering work.
Possible earthquake loss estimation booklet prepared according to districts in Istanbul.
So what did he say about the expected Istanbul earthquake?
Naci Görür stated that it is difficult to make an earthquake magnitude estimation for the regions that may occur at the moment, and stated that the North Anatolian Fault From Erzincan to Marmara He expressed great relief:
“Only We expect an earthquake of more than 7 on the Yedisu Fault between Karlıova and Erzincan. The last earthquake in that area was in the 1790s. If we leave that aside, the North Anatolian Fault may enter the adaptation phase for a long time. If the earthquake we are waiting for happens in Istanbul, our loss will be much more than Maraş, with the current building stock and the logic of slums. At least 500 thousand people are face to face with death!”
After the painful earthquake that took place in our country, Naci Görür repeats again and again that we need to roll up our sleeves so that the upcoming Istanbul earthquake does not end like the Kahramanmaraş earthquake. more against earthquake a resilient and conscious society in the hope of not giving up the light of science and heeding the warnings in order to be
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