Berlin Because the vaccination rate in Germany is apparently higher than assumed, there are increasing demands for an exit plan from all corona measures. According to a report by the Robert Koch Institute (RKI), it can be assumed that up to 84 percent of adults are already vaccinated once and up to 80 percent are fully vaccinated. This would correspond to a vaccination rate that is five percentage points higher than the official reports from the vaccination centers.
“This results in the need for a political timetable, when the end of all restrictions can be expected,” said Andreas Gassen, head of the Association of Statutory Health Insurance Physicians (KBV), the Handelsblatt. “In short: when exactly the epidemic situation can end.”
Most of the corona measures have already been lifted. However, the vaccination rates that have now been achieved make it possible to dispense with requirements for wearing medical masks outdoors, said Health Minister Jens Spahn (CDU). In indoor areas, access rules for vaccinated, convalescent and tested people (3G) with the option for 2G only remain important for vaccinated and convalescent people – as well as hygiene rules for keeping your distance and wearing masks, especially on buses and trains.
So far, however, there is no plan to get out of all measures. If the RKI’s assumption is correct that significantly more people are vaccinated than previously assumed, the vaccination rate in Germany would now be almost as high as in Great Britain and Denmark, when they repealed all corona rules. The RKI, however, only recommends this step when 85 percent of 12 to 59 year olds and 90 percent of people over the age of 60 have been fully vaccinated.
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The problem: It cannot be said with certainty how many in Germany are actually protected against the virus, especially if those who have recovered are included. “Unfortunately, we have poor data in Germany on how many unvaccinated convalescents there are,” said Ulf Dittmer, virologist at the Essen University Hospital, the Handelsblatt.
He assumes, however, that the number of vaccinated and unvaccinated convalescents is “very close” to the herd immunity, which he accounts for in the Delta variant at a rate of 85 percent. There is no other explanation for the fact that the number of cases fell in September and is now stagnating.
The end of all measures is not yet in sight
“But that also means that probably more than ten million Germans have neither been vaccinated nor recovered,” said Dittmer. These people would continue to get infected, which could continue to overload hospitals. “Therefore, not all measures should be abolished immediately,” he said. Only in the spring of 2022 can it be assumed that herd immunity has been achieved – and that all measures can therefore be dropped.
The Leipzig epidemiologist Markus Scholz even recommends waiting until April. “Due to the failure of the last flu wave, a stronger one can be expected for the upcoming season,” he said. With the now prevailing vaccination rate, however, the risk of a strong wave over the autumn and winter is “significantly reduced”.
The SPD health expert Bärbel Bas already referred to November, when the Bundestag had to decide whether the epidemic situation would continue. “Then we will see the further progress with the vaccinations and also be able to assess the development of the number of infections in autumn better than today,” she told the Handelsblatt. “As long as I am in favor of giving the countries the opportunity to take protective measures.”
Unvaccinated people without a valid test must stay outside.
(Photo: action press)
The opposition, however, has sharply criticized the data collection for the vaccination campaign. “How many people in Germany have been vaccinated and recovered, apparently on the basis of the information available, nobody can say with certainty,” criticized the Green health expert Janosch Dahmen to the Handelsblatt.
“Federal Health Minister Spahn must now create clarity – and finally set up the system of recording in such a way that it delivers reliable figures.” Ultimately, these figures are the prerequisite for decisions about whether and how much protective measures are still required.
The FDP health expert Andrew Ullmann even speaks of a “chaotic data situation of the vaccination coverage in Germany”. The statements about a higher vaccination rate would come from a “outgoing minister”. “A timely notification to the Committee on Health would now be necessary,” demanded Ullmann. Otherwise it would be difficult to make reliable political recommendations for action.
Ullmann attributes the ambiguities primarily to the “lack of digitization” in the public health service and in the health care system, which is now “painfully visible”. A government urgently needs to address this.
Unclear data situation
The RKI explains in its report that it stands to reason “that the vaccination quota reported in the digital vaccination quota monitoring is to be understood as the minimum vaccination quota and an underestimation of up to five percentage points for the proportion of people who have been vaccinated at least once or who have been completely vaccinated can be assumed.” The estimate is based on citizen surveys and registration data. To illustrate: five percentage points for adults roughly correspond to 3.5 million people.
The background to this is that in surveys by the RKI, significantly more people state that they have already been vaccinated than are recorded in the registration statistics. According to reports from vaccination centers such as practices, company doctors and vaccination centers, almost 80 percent of people over the age of 18 have received a first injection, and a good 75 percent have already received the second.
In relation to the entire population, according to data from Thursday, 65 percent or 54 million people are now completely vaccinated with the second syringe, which is usually necessary for this. 56.8 million people or 68.4 percent of all residents have at least one first vaccination.
The RKI cites various reasons why, based on the surveys, the vaccination rate seems to be higher – among other things, that people who are not ready to vaccinate are underrepresented in the surveys. The RKI also states that people with poor knowledge of German cannot take part in the survey.
“There is a presumption that language barriers also lead to a lower use of the Covid-19 vaccination.” In addition, certain vaccinations are not even recorded in the statistics. As early as August, the RKI reported “a certain degree of uncertainty” in the interpretation of vaccination rate data.
There are also reporting delays in some cases. So far, only about half of the company doctors registered in the digital system have reported vaccinations via the web application. This could be “an indication of under-reporting of vaccination rates”.
In addition, it can be assumed that not all vaccinations are transmitted via corresponding reporting portals in everyday practice. Assuming that all doses delivered by September 27th were vaccinated by October 5th, the proportion of adults vaccinated at least once increased by 3.2 points.
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