At first glance, not much seems to have changed: Emmanuel Macron is ahead after the first round of the French presidential election, in the runoff he has to compete against the right-wing populist Marine Le Pen. Most losing candidates are calling on their supporters to vote for Macron, or at least not for Le Pen, in the second ballot. The old one will be the new president, things will continue as usual.
That view would be a mistake. Sunday’s election cemented a new political order in the neighboring country. France is essentially divided: into a liberal, pro-European and a nationalist camp. A significant minority cannot identify with either of these two tendencies. It is far from clear whether Macron will be re-elected to the Élysée Palace on April 24th.
The incumbent president is often described as left-liberal, but actually pursues more liberal-conservative policies. He stands for a France that is facing up to global competition with economic reforms. That sees its place in a strong European Union. That is fundamentally open to immigration, but would like clear rules for this. That does not want to do without more police presence for more security.
Macron was able to increase his share of the vote in the first round compared to the election five years ago. But the potential of his program has clear limits. The president has already absorbed most of the support left and right of center – which is also reflected in the historically weak performance of the Socialists and the conservative-bourgeois Republicans. The new line of conflict separating Macron and Le Pen in the runoff election is emerging on the rubble of the party-political order that has shaped France over the past few decades.
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Macron cannot really benefit from his role as protector of the nation in times of crisis. His result on Sunday was below his poll readings from early March, when concerns among the French population about the war in Ukraine were even more pronounced. For his re-election, he needs above all left-wing voters who are critical of him and his politics. Will they vote for President in two weeks to prevent Le Pen? Or stay away from the polls out of frustration at your own powerlessness and aversion to Macron’s plans, such as a higher retirement age?
Macron as president of the rich?
The outcome of the first ballot also shows that more than half of the voters said goodbye to the center. The protest coalition ranges from right-wing nationalist Éric Zemmour and Le Pen to left-wing populist Jean-Luc Mélenchon. Mélenchon finished third just behind Le Pen on Sunday. He did not call on his supporters to vote for Macron, but simply asked them not to vote for Le Pen.
Behind this bloc is the other France, where Macron is seen as president of the rich and advocate of the globalized elite. When it comes to socio-political issues such as immigration, the political margins on the left and right differ, but there are many points of agreement in terms of social and economic policy. Your spokesmen rely on isolation, the EU is considered a shackle for your own country, NATO as an imperialist project of the USA. For a long time, they had a lot of sympathy for Vladimir Putin, even if they now condemn his aggressive war in Ukraine.
Le Pen positions herself as leader of the anti-Macron bloc for the runoff. She presents herself as a representative of the simple French, as a fighter against the elites and the forces of globalization. It achieved its best results in areas where factories and post offices have closed, where no TGV guarantees a fast connection to Paris. Mélenchon is also strong in these regions, coupled with support from an urban intelligentsia. In the end, how many of his supporters will have a bulwark against the hated president more important than a barrier against the far right?
Voting for Le Pen could also be easier for many French people because the right-wing populist has moderated her tone and her demands. Little has changed in their core beliefs. But that this exorcism is working in its own right is shown by various polls, in which Le Pen was able to dramatically reduce the gap to Macron in a direct duel.
More on the subject: Why Macron is so unpopular in France